Cost crisis and crime in Scotland

Part One: Existing Evidence

Applicability of Existing Evidence to Current Cost Crisis

In 2010 the Scottish Government published a paper that explored crime and macroeconomic performance in Scotland, it found that the available literature "while extensive is unable to come to a definitive conclusion regarding the association between crime and the economy" and that ultimately "there is no certain link between economic performance and crime". The following section will draw on that paper, in addition to more recent academic sources, to elaborate on this conclusion and to unpick the different economic variables (recession, unemployment, wages, inequality, poverty and consumption) and their specific relationship with crime.

A country's overall economic performance can be measured in a number of different ways including, but not limited to, poverty rates, unemployment rates, wage rates, inflation rates, and its gross domestic product (GDP). As such, when exploring the relationship between macroeconomic performance and crime we are in fact exploring the relationship between these different economic variables and crime. This is relevant because different periods of economic downturn are characterised by different shifts in these variables. Figure 1, below, outlines inflation, unemployment, and recorded crime rates from 1971 until the most recently available figures in 2022-23. It is clear from the Figure that the recessions of the 1970s saw rising inflation and low unemployment. Conversely, the recessions of the 1980s, the 1990s and 2008 brought periods of higher unemployment and decreasing inflation. The current period of economic downturn, the cost crisis, is closest to the circumstances of the early 1970s – increasing levels of inflation, combined with relatively lower levels of unemployment.

Consequently, when attempting to learn from the past it is important not to equate all periods of economic downturn and, instead, explore how past changes in specific economic variables have impacted upon both overall recorded crime and specific types of crime. Furthermore, it is important to flag the uncertainty around the magnitude of change created by economic factors. Whilst the following pages discuss an empirical link between crime and specific economic variables, the evidence rarely describes how strong the impact of changes in economic factors is.

Recession and Crime

'Recession' is the term used to describe the shrinking of an economy over two consecutive three month periods (or two quarters). Scotland was at risk of a recession after the economy shrank by 0.3% in Quarter 3 of 2022, however, a recession was narrowly avoided as GDP grew by 0.2% in Quarter 4 of 2022 and by 0.4% in Quarter 1 of 2023^[4]. Scottish GDP continued to grow, by 0.2%, in the three months to April, slightly slowing from the growth rate in Quarter 1. The Scottish Government's Monthly Economic Brief for June 2023 noted that Scottish economic activity has recovered from the fall in the second half of 2022, with latest data indicating that economic output remains more resilient than initially forecast.

Whilst Scotland is not currently in a recession it has recently experienced a quarter of shrinkage followed by a period of limited growth and therefore research exploring the relationship between recession and crime is relevant. However, the academic literature on the subject is largely inconclusive - some authors claim there is no high-level relationship between recession and overall crime rates^[5],[6], whilst others claim there is a relationship when additional specific data are considered, such as crime type, per capita income and the population of young men^[7]. Overall, it is reasonably commonplace for the literature to have contrasting viewpoints and therefore it is difficult to make definitive statements on recession and crime, even when limiting scope to specific crime types and reviewing a variety of evidence sources. The most common explanation for this inconsistency in the findings is that GDP may be too broad an indicator and not a proximate cause of criminal activity dynamics, in contrast to alternative indicators such as unemployment and low wages.

Unemployment and Crime

Despite the volume of research exploring this area, the relationship between overall or total crime and unemployment is ambiguous. The evidence appears to be equivocal, with a variety of studies finding contradictory results^[8].

When we look at how unemployment impacts upon different types of crime we find more uniformity within the literature. Raphael & Winter-Ebmer (2001) state that "higher unemployment unambiguously increases property crime rates"^[9]. Similarly, Levitt (2004) reviews a number of studies and finds that almost all of them "report a statistically significant but substantively small relationship between unemployment rates and property crime" and goes on to state that a "typical estimate would be that a one percentage point increase in the unemployment rate is associated with a one percent point increase in property crime"^[10].

Both Raphael et al. (2001) and Levitt (2004) agree that violent crime, on the other hand, does not vary systematically with the unemployment rate and that the relationship between these two variables is weaker. Nordin & Almen (2017), however, have undertaken a study that is the first to focus explicitly on the effect of long-term unemployment on crime and find that it "shows a strong association with violent crime, an effect which is greater than that of total unemployment on property crime"^[11]. Nordin & Almen (2017) say this relationship cannot be explained by conventional theories on the economics of crime and hypothesise that long-term unemployment "creates a feeling of alienation that fosters violent and other non-rational behaviours"^[12]. Recent research published by the Scottish Government on Repeat Violent Victimisation also discusses this relationship between alienation and violence and finds that specific policy decisions and institutional practices can foster "a sense of alienation, humiliation and anti-authority sentiment in marginalised communities, which in turn has an impact on violent offending (as well as police reporting and access to victim support)".

A further confounding variable when seeking to understand the effect of unemployment on crime is the impact of population demographics and specifically the proportion of young people within a population. It is widely acknowledged that the number of young people within a population impacts upon the crime level^[13]. Britt (1997) investigates the joint influence that age and unemployment may have on rates of criminal behaviour and finds that "unemployment has a greater motivational effect on property crime among youth and young adults"^[14]. It is important to acknowledge, therefore, that unemployment does not have a singular relationship with crime but rather it can be considered as one of a number of indicators that, in combination, might lead to higher crime rates. Research conducted on the 2008 recession and crime in Greater Manchester supports this view. The researchers state it is easier to determine which local areas are more likely to experience an increase in crime, rather than if an increase in crime is likely at all^[15]. Local areas likely to experience an increase in crime can be identified using the following indicators:

1. The comparative proportion of young people aged 18-24 in the overall population within a specific locale;

2. Unemployment rate, particularly unemployed young men;

3. The comparative deprivation of the local area; and,

4. Expected cuts to local government expenditure, which may impact unemployment and the support available to the most vulnerable.

Therefore, the relationship between unemployment and crime is multi-layered and unemployment may be best understood as one of a number of factors that may contribute toward an increasing crime rate.

Analysis undertaken by Scottish Government statisticians explored the relationship between levels of unemployment in Scotland, all recorded crime and specific crime types including housebreaking and theft of a motor vehicle from 1971 until the present day. A strong positive linear correlation was observed between unemployment and overall recorded crime^[16] (0.706), unemployment and housebreaking (0.698) and unemployment and theft of a motor vehicle (0.523). Whilst it is not possible to infer any causal relationship between these variables, the observations align with findings from the literature review.

The latest Labour Market Trends bulletin from August 2023 states the estimated unemployment rate for people aged 16 years and over in Scotland was 4% in April to June 2023. This is 0.2 percentage points down on December 2019 to February 2020 (pre-pandemic) but up 0.9 percentage points over the quarter. Scotland's unemployment rate was below the UK rate of 4.2%. There has been recent media coverage quoting Kitty Ussher, chief economist at the Institute of Directors, that states there will be a rising UK unemployment rate, fuelled by businesses hesitating to hire on account of their high costs and cash-strapped consumers^[17]. This aligns with forecasting by the Bank of England that predicts the UK unemployment rate will rise to 4.3% by 2024 Q3 and to just under 5% by 2026 Q3^[18]. Therefore, this may be an area for further consideration in future.

Wages and Crime

We know that despite unemployment levels in Scotland remaining relatively low (4%) the cost crisis is characterised by real term pay decreases with the effects of inflation being felt most acutely by low income households. Figure 2, below, illustrates the considerable real term pay decreases that occurred in 2022.

The wage level, and in particular the level of low wages, is considered an economic factor that can explain variation in criminal activity.

Machin & Meghir (2004) use data on the police force areas of England and Wales between 1975 and 1996 in order to explore the role that economic incentives, particularly changes in wages at the bottom end of the wage distribution, play in determining crime rates for property and vehicle crime. They find that "(relative) falls in the wages of low-wage workers lead to increases in crime"^[19]. Furthermore, they state that their findings align with recent evidence from the US that suggests the "low-wage labour market may, in fact, matter more for crime than unemployment"^[20]. This is particularly relevant when considering the impact of the cost crisis as it is characterised by low wages as opposed to high unemployment.

Gould et al. (2002) look at changes in crime rates in the US from 1979 to 1997 and explore whether these can be explained by changes in the labour market opportunities for those most likely to commit crime, unskilled or less educated men. They find that crime rates are significantly determined by wages and that "a sustained long-term decrease in crime rates will depend on whether the wages of less skilled men continue to improve"^[21]. Notably their findings are robust to the inclusion of deterrence variables, including arrest rates and police expenditures, as well as controlling for individual and family characteristics. Closer to home, Hansen & Machin (2003) look at the introduction of the national minimum wage in the UK in 1999 to determine whether there is a link between crime and the labour market. They find that there is a statistically significant relationship, there were "relative crime reductions in areas that initially had more low wage workers" following the introduction of the minimum wage^[22] and that this holds when controlling for other relevant determinants of crime. Ultimately, they conclude that altering wage incentives can affect crime rates.

More recently, Tiratelli et al. (2022) explore the impact of the introduction of Universal Credit across England and Wales on crime. Universal Credit was a far-reaching reform to Britain's social security system that lowered incomes for most claimants^[23]. They found that as Universal Credit enrolments increase in a given area, so does the crime rate and that these findings hold for total crime, property crime and violent crime. They argue that their findings suggest that Universal Credit "seems to have exacerbated the discrepancy between what society promises and the standard of living that is actually available, increasing the pool of motivated offenders and the level of crime"^[24].

Each piece of reviewed evidence establishes a strong link between low wages and crime, with Tiratelli (2022) finding this relationship for total, property and violent crime.

Inequality and Crime

Closely related to the consideration of how low wages impact upon crime is the issue of income inequality. In the latest period in Scotland^[25], there has been an increase in household incomes for the top 30% and a fall in income for the bottom 60%^[26]. It should be noted, however, that the Scottish Government's preferred measure of income inequality, the Palma ratio (which looks at total income of the top 10% and divides this by the total income of the bottom forty percent of the population) is falling and the Gini coefficient^[27], another measure of income inequality, is also falling over the same period^[28]. Therefore, it is not entirely clear what the impact of the cost crisis on inequality has been.

With regard to inequality's impact on crime, however, the literature is less ambiguous: a rise in inequality often corresponds to a rise in crime.

Whitworth (2011) uses multilevel modelling to explore the relationship between inequality and five crime types (burglary, robbery, violence, vehicle crime, and criminal damage) at sub-national level across England, between 2002 and 2009. He finds that, after controlling for other factors, inequality is significantly and positively associated with increased levels of all five crime types, and the effects are larger for acquisitive crime types^[29].

Kelly (2000) also considers the relationship between inequality and crime yet finds that whilst inequality has a strong and robust impact on violent crime, including robbery, it has no effect on property crime which is, instead, significantly affected by both poverty levels and police activity^[30]. This contradicts Choe's (2008) finding that there is a strong and robust effect of relative income inequality on burglary^[31]. Kelly (2000) does, however, acknowledge that the geographical units analysed within his study were relatively large and that further analysis is required to determine if at the neighbourhood level, local inequality translates into increased levels of property crime.

Wilkinson (2004) also identified a link between inequality and violence, explaining that "the most well-established environmental determinant of levels of violence is the scale of income differences between rich and poor"^[32]. He goes on to explain this relationship by exploring how "inequality is socially corrosive", and ultimately establishing that social relationships in more unequal societies are less good, characterised by people trusting each other less and being less likely to be involved in community life.

Hicks & Hicks (2012) take an alternative approach to analysing the link between inequality and crime; instead of focusing on inequality of income (which is not easily observed) they focus on conspicuous consumption, or the visible manifestation of income. They find a robust association between the distribution of conspicuous consumption and violent crime, a more robust association between that found between crime and inequality^[33]. Their findings raise interesting questions about whether it is the inequality itself that drives the violent crime or rather the signalling nature of visible consumption behaviour.

Poverty and Crime

There has been a slight increase in relative poverty when measured at the population level (currently at 21%) in Scotland between 2018-21 and 2019-22^[34][35]. The latest estimate is higher than in previous years, driven by a higher rate for working-age adults. It is yet unclear whether this is the beginning of a new trend, or if it is a volatile data point^[36].

Poverty is, as Webster and Kingston (2014) explain, defined by a general lack of sufficient material resources^[37]. The Scottish Government defines a person as 'in poverty' if their equivalised net disposable household income is below 60% of the median household income. Poverty, therefore, is not the same as social mobility, well-being, or inequality.

McAra and McVie (2016) explore youth violence in Scotland, testing the relationship between violence and poverty. They find that poverty and violence are systematically linked; "those from low socio-economic status households had 1.5 times greater odds of involvement in violence than those from more affluent family backgrounds"^[38]. The authors suggest that violence, in this context, is being used by individuals as a means of asserting power and a sense of self as a result of having limited opportunities for gaining status in more "pro-social ways"^[39]. Gaitán-Rossi and Guadarrama (2021:4) have carried out a systematic review of the literature on the mechanisms that link poverty and crime. They find that "urban poverty is both a determinant of crime and a consequence" and that "crime is a central aspect of the conditions and experience of poverty"^[40]. The authors explore a number of mechanisms linking poverty and crime, and find, amongst other mechanisms that: "residing in communities of extreme poverty increases exposure to contexts of social disorder, reduces family social capital, and increases the likelihood that young people will commit a violent crime"^[41].

What remains a point of contention within the literature is how poverty and inequality interact to affect crime. As discussed above, Kelly (2000) found that the rates of property and violent crime behaved quite differently, with property crime being impacted by poverty, but not inequality, and violent crime being related to inequality. This complexity is also identified by DeCourson and Nettle (2021) who found that higher inequality is associated with higher crime, however, also noted that the "association between inequality and rate of property crime is fully mediated by the prevalence of poverty." Unpacking the specific links between inequality, poverty and crime is outwith the scope of this paper. With regard to understanding the impact of the cost crisis, the key takeaway from the evidence is that both poverty and inequality are widely considered to be drivers of crime.

Consumption and Crime

Somewhat related to wages, employment and poverty, we can explore the impact of consumption on crime.

Some studies have found that in periods where consumption grows, acquisitive crimes appear to decline^[42]. These studies suggest that in the short run, when consumption is increasing and acquisitive crimes are declining, the 'negative motivation effect' is occurring: individuals consume more, implying that they have higher resources to spend, hence less motivation to engage in acquisitive crime. It will only be at a successive stage, once more individuals possess more goods, that the 'positive opportunity effect' might occur – where there are a greater number of more 'profitable' targets for crime and therefore an increased expected payoff to engage in criminal activity^[43].

If recessions and periods of economic downturn tend to bring about periods of declining consumption, these findings may suggest that acquisitive crimes are likely to increase on account of their being a higher motivation to engage in acquisitive crimes. However, what is notable and perhaps surprising about the current cost crisis is that despite real term pay decreases, consumption in the UK has increased since the same time last year, even if only very slightly.

The latest ONS figures for Household Final Consumption Expenditure (HHFCE), which includes all spending on goods and services by members of UK households, stated that in Quarter 2 (April to June) 2023, household spending growth (adjusted for inflation) was 0.5% compared with Quarter 1 (January to March) 2023; when compared with Quarter 2 2022, household spending increased by positive 0.2%.

This observation is a further reminder that each period of economic downturn is unique and that this uniqueness further complicates efforts to anticipate any relationship between the cost crisis and crime rates.

Non-economic factors that may impact on crime rates

When considering the relationship between economic factors and crime rates it is important to also acknowledge and consider the non-economic factors that can influence crime. Furthermore, it is essential to recognise the interplay between these economic and non-economic factors, acknowledging that ultimately it is very difficult, if not impossible, to disentangle these in order to attribute causation. Prominent non-economic drivers of crime can make it particularly hard to disentangle economic impacts. One historical example of this is the heroin epidemic of the 1990s which was a key driver of crime to the degree that it significantly limits our ability to understand other drivers of crime, both economic and non-economic, during this period^[44]. Non-economic factors that may impact upon crime in the present day include:

COVID-19

The nationwide lockdowns and other measures put in place to limit social contact during the COVID-19 pandemic are very likely to have had a significant impact on the type and volume of crime recorded since March 2020. A larger impact was seen during 2020-21, and to a lesser extent in 2021-22. The final legal restrictions were lifted in April 2022, suggesting a much more limited impact in 2022-23.

The 2020-2021 Police Recorded Crime bulletin reports that all crimes, with the exception of those recorded under Coronavirus related legislation, collectively decreased by 8% from the previous recording year. Furthermore, Crimes of Dishonesty – including housebreaking, theft, shoplifting and theft of motor vehicle - decreased by 19% (a record annual fall). When determining the impact of the cost crisis on overall recorded crime and certain crime types it is, therefore, important to consider the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and to critically evaluate whether any rises in crime rates are simply a return to 'normal' levels post-pandemic or a result of the cost crisis.

Social Interaction

In the company of likeminded individuals, a sense of invulnerability and a willingness to violate social norms and take risks can materialise^[45]. If some individuals within a group or community engage in criminal activity and successfully modify the way the criminal act is perceived by their peers, rendering it an 'acceptable' act, then the crime may soon become an integral part of the social norms. These negative interactions may then spread across an area, forging the social norms present in that area at a given moment in time^[46]. If committing a given crime becomes socially common and more acceptable then it is more likely that an individual will commit the crime. A specific example of this might be changing attitudes towards domestic abuse. The Scottish Social Attitudes Survey 2019: attitudes to violence against women compares public attitudes to violence against women in 2014 with those of 2019. It finds that, for example, that there was a 10-percentage-point increase from 2014 to 2019 in the proportion of people who thought that rape within a marriage was 'very seriously wrong' and there was a significant increase from 39% in 2014 to 55% in 2019 in the proportion of people thinking it was 'very seriously wrong' for a husband to control what his wife wears. These changes in attitudes towards violence against women may impact the likelihood of these crimes to occur and also the likelihood of these crimes being reported to the police.

Number of Police Officers

Some, but limited, evidence exists that increasing numbers of police officers leads to a reduction in the rate of violent crime and, to a lesser extent, property crime^[47].

Human Capital

Factors such as education, knowledge, and vocational skills are important variables in determining an individual's propensity to commit a crime, with schooling significantly reducing the probability of arrest and incarceration^[48].

Technological Advancements

Advancements in technology have led to some crimes being more difficult to commit, and the relative decrease in the value of electronics has diminished the appeal and reward from the theft of these items^[49]. It should be noted, however, that technological advancements, especially in the field of information and communication technology (ICT), have also opened up new opportunities for crime^[50].

Imprisonment

Imprisonment is accepted to have an incapacitation effect on crime, as when an individual is incarcerated they are unable to reoffend outwith the prison thus reducing crime rates^[51]. There is mixed and ambiguous evidence relating to whether prison impacts upon crime rates through a deterrence mechanism^[52], when an individual is deterred from committing crime by the high probability of being imprisoned and the more severe the punishment.

Alcohol and Drug Consumption

The 2019/20 Scottish Crime and Justice Survey found that in 44% of violent incidents where victims were able to say something about the offender, the offenders were believed to be under the influence of alcohol. Relatedly, victims reported that just under one-in-three violent crimes (30%) involved offenders who were thought to be under the influence of drugs in 2019/20, unchanged from the first year of the survey (2008/09) and previous survey sweep (2018/19). Combining this data, in 2019/20 it was found that offenders were believed to be under the influence of alcohol and/or drugs in just over half (55%) of violent incidents where the victims were able to say something about the offender, this is a decrease on both the proportion in 2008/09 (68%) and 2018/19 (78%) but remains a factor in a sizeable proportion of violent incidents. Thus, we should consider alcohol and drug consumption to be a variable which may impact upon crime rates.

Population Demographics

The academic evidence tells us that crime rates increase as the proportion of young people, and specifically young men, increase within the population. Kelly (2000) explains that both property and violent crime are negatively influenced by the percentage of population aged 16-24^[53] and Field (1999) notes that "thefts and burglaries are associated with the numbers of young males […] for every 1 per cent increase in the number of males aged 15 and 20, burglary and theft increase by about 1 per cent"^[54].

The Figure below depicts the population of males aged 16-24 as a proportion of the overall population. We can see that the proportion has decreased since 2011, which may have had an impact upon the crime rate within Scotland. Data from the ONS makes projections about how the size of this group will change in the future. It shows that over the next 10 years the size of this group is projected to steadily increase, which may influence the crime rate in Scotland in the years to come. It should be noted, however, that a 2019 Scottish Government publication, 'Non-sexual violence in Scotland', found that the notable reduction in non-sexual violence in the decade preceding 2019 has been "driven by a reduction in younger males' involvement in violent crime".

Analysis undertaken by Scottish government statisticians explored the relationship between the proportion of young men aged 16-24, overall recorded crime^[55], housebreaking, and theft of a motor vehicle. A strong positive linear correlation was observed between the proportion of young men and overall recorded crime (0.604), proportion of young men and housebreaking (0.834), and proportion of young men and theft of a motor vehicle (0.640). Whilst it is not possible to infer any causal relationship between these variables, the observations align with findings from the literature review.

Case Study: Housebreaking

To more fully demonstrate both the complexity of analysing how the cost crisis is related to crime and the difficulty of disentangling economic factors from non-economic factors, we will explore in detail one specific type of acquisitive crime, housebreaking^[56].

Based on the existing evidence related to crime and macroeconomic changes, as outlined in Part One, we can make a number of assumptions about what we might expect to see when looking at housebreaking over the course of the cost crisis. The academic evidence tells us that acquisitive crimes, including housebreaking, are associated with low wages, poverty and inequality. In short, low wages, an increasing poverty rate, and increasing inequality are all widely understood to increase acquisitive crimes. The current cost crisis in Scotland is characterised by decreases in real term pay^[57], a slight increase in poverty when measured at the population level (currently at 21%)^[58][59] and, for the latest period, an increase in household incomes for the top 30% and a fall in income for the bottom 60%^[60][61]. We might, therefore, expect to see an increase in acquisitive crimes, including housebreaking.

Figure 4 below outlines the most recent police recorded crime data on housebreaking, from 2008-09 to the present day:

The Figure shows that the level of housebreaking fell over the period of the pandemic, which may be attributed to pandemic restrictions, most notably 'lockdown', which meant individuals spent more time in their homes. Since the onset of the cost crisis, and the removal of 'lockdown' measures, we have not seen a return to pre-pandemic levels of housebreaking. This trend is quite different to what we may have expected on the basis of the existing evidence.

Extending the time period further, we can observe housebreaking trends from 1971 to the present day:

This Figure allows us to see how housebreaking trends have responded during previous periods of economic downturn. Whilst there appears to be significant increases in this crime type during the recessions of the mid 1970s, early 1980s and also in the early 1990s we do not see this pattern following the 2008 recession. This is a further indication that we need to exercise caution when seeking to understand the impact of the current cost crisis through the means of research on previous periods of economic downturn.

It is clear that to understand housebreaking trends in Scotland over the course of the cost crisis we must expand our thinking to incorporate non-economic factors that may play a role. Levitt (2004) has undertaken research of this vein in relation to the sharp fall in crime in the US in the 1990s and identified four factors that explain the decline: "increases in the number of police, the rising prison population, the waning crack epidemic and the legalization [sic] of abortion"^[63]. Whilst such a project on the topic of housebreaking is outwith the scope of this paper, we might hypothesise that the housebreaking trend in Scotland may be impacted by such non-economic factors as: technological advancements, specifically the widespread use of personal surveillance devices in and around the home; decreased rewards from housebreaking, as a result of an increasingly cashless society and falling real-term value of stolen goods; increases in the number of individuals working from home following on from the pandemic; demographic changes in the Scottish population, specifically the reduction in the proportion of 18-24 year old males; the number of police and developments in or changes to policing strategy; and, the effectiveness of government policies with the aim of reducing crime.

It is important to clarify that none of these factors have been shown to impact upon housebreaking. However, with the crime trend not responding as we might expect based on the evidence it is worthwhile conjecturing if only to demonstrate that any exploration of the impact of the cost crisis on crime must be embedded within a wider and more holistic understanding of the factors that impact upon the crime rate.

Part One: Conclusion

The evidence is by no means conclusive in favour of a certain economic variable having a relationship with overall crime. This is an important finding in itself as it dispels the idea that worsening economic conditions will inevitably result in a rise in crime.

What we do know is that the evidence suggests that unemployment, low wages, poverty, and inequality, and perhaps to a lesser extent, consumption, have a relationship with rates of specific crimes. However, it is also clear from the evidence that rising or declining crime rates can be the result of a combination of a huge variety of both economic and non-economic factors, making it extremely difficult to pinpoint the exact relationship between individual variables and crime rates.

To further complicate matters, we know that past recessions – and the focus of existing research – have had a specific set of economic circumstances that differ from those seen in the current cost crisis. This makes any attempts to predict the impact of the cost crisis on crime in Scotland methodologically unadvisable.

Ultimately, whilst the existing literature helps us to understand how previous economic shifts have impacted upon crime in the past, we must rely on present day data to monitor crime trends during this current period of cost crisis in Scotland.