Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic (issue no. 29)

Latest findings in modelling the COVID-19 epidemic in Scotland, both in terms of the spread of the disease through the population (epidemiological modelling) and of the demands it will place on the system, for example in terms of health care requirement.


Technical Annex

Table 1. Probability of local authority areas having more than 50, 100, 300 or 500 cases per 100K (13 - 19 December 2020). Data updated on 01 December.
LA P (Cases > 500) P (Cases > 300) P (Cases > 100) P (Cases > 50)
Aberdeen City 10% 22% 61% 81%
Aberdeenshire 12% 32% 85% 98%
Angus 0% 0% 19% 55%
Argyll and Bute 0% 1% 10% 45%
City of Edinburgh 0% 0% 15% 56%
Clackmannanshire 2% 13% 88% 98%
Dumfries and Galloway 0% 0% 0% 2%
Dundee City 0% 0% 18% 59%
East Ayrshire 0% 2% 35% 76%
East Dunbartonshire 0% 0% 21% 62%
East Lothian 0% 0% 4% 42%
East Renfrewshire 0% 2% 67% 95%
Falkirk 0% 0% 2% 29%
Fife 0% 0% 32% 77%
Glasgow City 0% 0% 17% 78%
Highland 0% 0% 0% 2%
Inverclyde 0% 1% 45% 79%
Midlothian 0% 0% 22% 73%
Moray 0% 0% 0% 3%
Na h-Eileanan Siar 0% 0% 3% 8%
North Ayrshire 0% 2% 44% 84%
North Lanarkshire 0% 0% 44% 89%
Orkney Islands 0% 0% 2% 10%
Perth and Kinross 1% 7% 51% 79%
Renfrewshire 0% 5% 86% 98%
Scottish Borders 0% 0% 3% 25%
Shetland Islands 0% 0% 5% 15%
South Ayrshire 0% 1% 53% 89%
South Lanarkshire 0% 2% 60% 94%
Stirling 0% 5% 78% 96%
West Dunbartonshire 0% 0% 20% 62%
West Lothian 0% 1% 56% 94%

Tables 2 and 3 provide the underlying data used in the section above on “What the modelling tells us about Hospital bed and ICU bed demand”. They are based on modelling undertaken by Scottish Government (for more information see research findings issue 1).

The purpose of these predictions is to support a decision on what measures are needed in different parts of Scotland. As part of the medium term modelling, these predictions are not intended as short term forecasts (less than two weeks, for which management information is more appropriate), but the initial weeks are provided for completeness.

As the middle, lower and upper ends of the range are presented for each health board, the aggregate cannot be used as a prediction of the number of beds required in Scotland as a whole.

Table 2. Estimated demand for ICU beds
Area Cap. (double)[5] 07/12/20 14/12/20 21/12/20 28/12/20 04/01/21 11/01/21
Ayrshire and Arran 20 7 (0-11) 7 (0-10) 6 (0-10) 6 (0-9) 7 (0-9) 7 (0-9)
Borders 10 * (0-5) * (0-5) * (0-5) * (0-5) * (0-5) * (0-5)
Dumfries and Galloway 8 * (0-5) * (0-5) * (0-5) * (0-5) * (0-5) * (0-5)
Fife 20 7 (0-9) 7 (0-8) 7 (0-8) 7 (0-8) 7 (0-8) 7 (0-8)
Forth Valley 14 7 (0-8) 6 (0-8) 6 (0-8) 7 (0-8) 7 (0-8) 7 (0-8)
Grampian 32 11 (5-14) 10 (0-13) 12 (0-17) 15 (0-24) 15 (0-24) 16 (0-24)
Greater Glasgow and Clyde 76 35 (15-44) 33 (13-42) 31 (10-41) 30 (8-40) 30 (7-40) 31 (6-41)
Highland 16 * (0-5) * (0-5) * (0-5) * (0-5) * (0-5) * (0-5)
Lanarkshire 40 25 (10-34) 24 (8-32) 22 (7-31) 21 (5-31) 22 (5-31) 22 (0-32)
Lothian 55 12 (0-18) 11 (0-17) 11 (0-17) 11 (0-16) 11 (0-16) 11 (0-16)
Orkney 0 * (0-5) * (0-5) * (0-5) * (0-5) * (0-5) * (0-5)
Shetland 0 * (0-5) * (0-5) * (0-5) * (0-5) * (0-5) * (0-5)
Tayside 22 6 (0-9) 6 (0-9) 6 (0-8) 6 (0-8) 6 (0-8) 6 (0-8)
Western Isles 4 * (0-5) * (0-5) * (0-5) * (0-5) * (0-5) * (0-5)

* indicates that the middle of the range is less than 5. Values in this table give an interval, actual occupancy could be higher or lower.

Table 3. Estimated demand for hospital beds
Area Cap. 07/12/20 14/12/20 21/12/20 28/12/20 04/01/21 11/01/21
Ayrshire and Arran 203 108 (43-143) 105 (37-137) 104 (32-135) 104 (28-135) 107 (25-136) 109 (23-138)
Borders 118 12 (5-15) 11 (0-14) 11 (0-14) 11 (0-14) 12 (0-14) 12 (0-15)
Dumfries and Galloway 90 6 (0-8) 6 (0-7) 5 (0-7) 5 (0-7) 5 (0-7) 5 (0-7)
Fife 322 60 (17-98) 58 (15-94) 58 (13-91) 58 (12-90) 60 (11-91) 61 (10-92)
Forth Valley 144 53 (15-85) 51 (13-82) 54 (11-87) 57 (10-92) 58 (9-93) 60 (9-95)
Grampian 295 98 (32-151) 95 (27-144) 118 (24-195) 152 (21-270) 156 (19-274) 160 (18-277)
Greater Glasgow and Clyde 1,070 405 (161-541) 393 (138-519) 374 (109-509) 363 (86-509) 372 (78-516) 381 (72-522)
Highland 176 11 (0-21) 11 (0-20) 11 (0-21) 12 (0-22) 12 (0-22) 12 (0-22)
Lanarkshire 455 243 (102-310) 236 (88-298) 226 (70-292) 218 (55-292) 223 (50-296) 229 (46-299)
Lothian 487 164 (72-200) 159 (62-191) 158 (54-188) 159 (48-183) 163 (44-186) 167 (40-188)
Orkney 28 * (0-5) * (0-5) * (0-5) * (0-5) * (0-5) * (0-5)
Shetland 64 * (0-5) * (0-5) * (0-5) * (0-5) * (0-5) * (0-5)
Tayside 172 84 (37-104) 82 (31-100) 82 (28-98) 84 (25-98) 86 (23-99) 88 (21-100)
Western Isles 32 * (0-5) * (0-5) * (0-5) * (0-5) * (0-5) * (0-5)

* indicates that the middle of the range is less than 5. Values in this table give an interval, actual occupancy could be higher or lower.

Contact

Email: modellingcoronavirus@gov.scot

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