Scottish climate change adaptation programme 2019-2024: strategic environmental assessment

• Aspects of the environment that are under pressure from climate change may benefit from focused activity that not only reduces the negative impacts of this change, but also gives rise to further benefits. (SCCAP1 SEA)
• In many cases, impacts arising from adaptation actions will be indirect in nature. (Climate Change Adaptation Framework SEA)
• The cross-cutting nature of climate change and the implications of adaptation actions across the SEA topics can result in significant interplay. Cooperation between sectors can enhance benefits and help to harmonise potentially competing outcomes. (Climate Change Adaptation Framework SEA)
• Adaptation strategies should involve an element of data gathering and awareness raising to ensure resources continue to be appropriately directed and to help avoid unintended secondary adverse impacts. (Climate Change Adaptation Framework SEA)
• Environmental benefits can be optimised by climate change action being brought into line with overarching Scottish Government objectives. (Climate Change Bill SEA)

• Projections of future climatic change in Scotland highlight increases in temperature, drier summers, wetter winters, more seasonal rainfall, and increased risk of flood, drought, and extreme weather events as key outcomes.

The main climate change trends are expected to continue. Without adequate planning, adaptation would be ad hoc, reactive, and is likely to lead to worse outcomes than a collaborative approach that focuses on results, performance, and measurement.

• Loss of and changes to certain habitats and species (including designated areas and priority species).
• Changes in species migration and impact on breeding cycles and food supplies (e.g. risks to coastal habitats from sea level rise and risk to species from flooding and water temperature rise).
• Indirect impacts on biodiversity (e.g. from changes in land use, as other activities adapt to face a changing climate).

Without the draft programme, there may be a lack of integration of biodiversity into adaptation activities and poorer coordination and focus in new research. Given the importance of considering biodiversity as a network, and as part of a wider ecosystem this could result in greater habitat fragmentation and biodiversity loss.

• Climate change may impact different groups of people in different ways (e.g. some remote rural, coastal and deprived communities are recognised as being more vulnerable to negative impacts of climate change due to pre-existing inequities).
• The health-related impacts of climate change are likely to be disproportionately felt by deprived areas (e.g. algal and fungal growth in poor quality or inadequately heated housing could increase).
• Potential opportunities may include health benefits from warmer winters and increased participation in outdoor activities.

Without the draft programme,  there is likely to be a range of activity implemented to address the effects of extreme weather, minimise public health risks from disease, and improve housing quality.

However, the absence of a coherent adaptation programme could mean that gaps arise in linking these measures with adaptation activities for other sectors, in order to secure more beneficial outcomes.

• The future management of our soils is vital because projected climate change threatens to promote conditions in which loss of soil carbon becomes more likely.
• Soil is at risk from a number of existing threats including loss of organic matter, erosion, changes in vegetation, and soil sealing from development.
• Certain management interventions in peatlands, forests, and agricultural soils could contribute to slowing or even reversing climatic change.

Adaptation responses will need to support opportunities to keep carbon in our soils.

Adaptation responses that support management interventions in soil that could contribute to  slowing or even reversing climatic change should be encouraged.

• The water environment is at risk from modifications to water courses, areas with poor water quality and increased water demand.

• Climate change impacts have the potential to exacerbate poor water quality, damage water habitats and species and threaten industry and health.

A range of strategies are in place to improve the water environment, by restoring natural processes, managing non-native species, flood risk, water quality, supply and demand.

Without the draft programme, opportunities to link adaptation of the water environment with wider priorities such as health and biodiversity may be missed.

• Air pollution can contribute to a number of health problems and climate change may exacerbate these issues.
• Climate change could alter current patterns and concentrations of air pollution.

Environmental trends suggest that increasing concentrations of air pollution may take place in the future.

Climate changes such as higher humidity, could increase this risk.

The absence of adaptation measures to address impacts could lead to further risks to the environment, population and human health.

• Changes in climate have the potential to impact on material assets in a number of ways.
• Agriculture and forestry are very closely linked to the climate and climatic change may result in risks and opportunities (e.g. risks such as new pests and diseases and opportunities for increased yields and carbon storage from increasing temperatures).
• In relation to energy assets, extreme weather changes may pose risks to existing and planned offshore renewable energy infrastructure, although further research is needed to determine what kind of impacts are likely.
• An increase in extreme weather events could damage transport infrastructure and cause disruptions to road and rail operations

Agriculture, forestry, and infrastructure will need to adapt to climate change impacts.

Without the draft programme, there is a lack of an overarching framework to bring together impacts of adaptation across theses material assets, and to anticipate and address issues before they arise.

• Most of Scotland’s Historic Assets are undesignated.
• Key risks affecting the historic environment include development pressures, maintenance, land use and climate change.
• Climate changes will  potentially accelerate  weathering and erosion processes increasing the maintenance demands on historic buildings and structures (both designated  and undesignated).

• There is a need to protect cultural heritage assets and their settings from direct and indirect impacts of climate change.
• Rising sea levels mean that coastal erosion is becoming an increasing threat to heritage assets.

Increased maintenance demands and physical risks to the historic environment are likely as a result of climate change.

Without the draft programme, there is likely to be less co-ordination and management of risks, with more extensive and expensive remediation measures being required at a later stage.

• Key risks to the landscape include the direct effects of climate change, as well as from development and changes in land use.
• Landscape may change as a direct result of climate change (e.g. coastal and river flooding and erosion. It may also change as an indirect result of climate change (e.g. spread of pests and pathogens, could alter vegetation and land cover).
• Change in land cover and land use will continue to occur into the future and the magnitude of climate change (and responses to it) will be a key factor in influencing this change.

Landscape change is likely as a result of direct effects of climate change and the indirect effects of adaptation and mitigation.

Some actions to support adaptation in other sectors could have impacts on landscapes. Without the programme, opportunities to balance the consideration of landscape with wider objectives could be missed.

UK Climate Change Act 2008 (‘the 2008 Act’)^[12]

• Basis for the UK’s approach to tackling climate change mitigation and adaptation.
• The Act requires CCRAs to be prepared, the latest of which  will inform the draft programme.

UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2012^[13]

• First CCRA produced in response to the requirements of the 2008 Act.
• Identified main priorities for adaptation in the UK, focusing on five themes: agriculture and forestry. business, industries, and services; health and wellbeing; buildings and infrastructure; and natural environment.

UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017^[14]

• Updates the 2012 CCRA.
• Outlines UK and Devolved Governments’ views on the key climate change risks and opportunities that the UK faces.
• Endorses six priority risk areas identified in the independent evidence report by the Adaptation Committee: from flooding and coastal change; to health and well-being from high temperatures; due to water shortages; to natural capital; to food production and trade; from pests and diseases and invasive non-native species.
• Scotland-specific evidence has also been collated into a ‘Scotland Report’.

UK Climate Projections 2018^[15]

• Explores how the UK’s climate could change over the next century under three different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios including temperature, rainfall, and sea level rise forecasts.
• Serves to equip the UK with information to help adapt to the challenges and opportunities of climate change.

Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009^[16]

• Sets the statutory framework for greenhouse gas emissions reductions.
• Scottish Ministers are required to report regularly to the Scottish Parliament on emissions and progress being made towards targets set in the Act and in secondary legislation.
• The draft programme is a requirement of the Act.

Low Carbon Scotland – Meeting the Emissions Reduction Targets 2010-2022: Report on Proposals and Policies (RPP1)^[17]

• Laid out specific measures for reducing emissions in line with statutory targets for the period 2010-2022.
• Structured around key sectors of energy supply, homes and communities, business and the public sector, transport, rural land use, and waste.

Low Carbon Scotland – Meeting Our Emissions Reduction Targets 2013-2027: Second Report on Proposals and Policies (RPP2)^[18]

• Laid out specific measures for reducing emissions in line with statutory targets for the period 2013-2027.
• Structured around the same key sectors as RPP.

Climate Change Plan - Third Report on Proposals and Policies (2018-2032) (RPP3)^[19]

• Sets out actions towards a low carbon economy in the context for the Scottish Government’s climate change proposals and policies and its statutory duties.
• Provides information on sector emissions envelopes and reduction trajectories.

Annual Progress Report to Parliament^[20]

• Compiled by Committee on Climate Change to report on UK’s progress towards reducing emissions in line with established carbon budgets and the 2050 target, as required by the 2008 Act.
• Also describes what further progress is needed to meet those budgets and target and whether they are likely to be met.

The 2020 Challenge for Scotland’s Biodiversity^[21]

• Aims to protect and restore biodiversity and support healthier ecosystems; and recognises the potential impacts of climate change on the biodiversity resource.
• Takes an ‘ecosystem approach’ to conservation and enhancement.
• Recognises the pressure on ecosystems that population growth and climate change bring.
• Recognises that climate change adaptation can improve ecosystem resilience.

The Scottish Rural Development Programme (SRDP) 2014 – 2020^[22]

• Includes economic, environmental and social measures designed to support rural Scotland.
• Through SRDP there are a large number of activities which land managers can use in responding to climate change.

Farming For A Better Climate^[23]

• Works with farmers and land managers in Scotland to encourage and advise on the uptake of practices that will help the sector to become more profitable whilst moving towards a low carbon sustainable future whilst also adapting to a changing climate and securing farm viability for future generations.
• Its five key action areas involve are using electricity and fuels efficiently, the development of renewable energy, locking carbon into soils and vegetation, making the best use of nutrients, and optimising livestock management.

The Scottish Forestry Strategy 2006 and 2019 – 29 (Draft)^[24]

• Sets out the long term vision for Scottish Forestry within the context of wider land use aspirations.
• Focuses on the sustainable creation and management of Scotland’s woodlands and forests.
• Opportunities that will support climate change resilience and adaptation are recognised.

Scotland’s Economic Strategy 2015^[25]

• Sets out how to achieve a more productive, cohesive and fairer Scotland.
• Prioritises boosting investment and innovation, supporting inclusive growth and maintaining focus on increasing internationalisation.
• Recognises climate change as a key challenge for economies.

Good Places, Better Health 2008^[26]

• Promotes partnership working which shares knowledge and understanding of how the physical environment impacts on mental health and wellbeing.
• Climate change adaptation responses may impact on the quality of our physical surroundings both positively and negatively.

The Scottish Soil Framework 2009^[27]

• Sets out the Scottish Government’s vision for soil protection.
• Formally acknowledges the important services soil provide to society.
• Recognises that climate change and loss of organic matter are the most significant threats to Scottish soils.
• Adaptation actions need to recognise the vulnerability of soils to climate change and ensure that they contribute to the protection of the soil resource.

Scotland’s National Marine Plan 2015^[28]

• Covers the management of both Scottish inshore waters (out to 12 nautical miles) and offshore waters (12 to 200 nautical miles).
• Considers climate change in terms of how plan actions can mitigate GHG emissions and how actions need to be adapted to account for climate change effects.
• Marine planning and conservation measures could provide opportunities to manage conflicting demands on the marine environment as a result of climate change adaptation.

The Flood Risk Management (Scotland) Act^[29] and Flood Risk Management Plans (FRMPs)^[30]

• The Act provides a comprehensive flood risk information base which will support the identification of locations where adaptation responses will be required to address flood risk.
• Adaptation responses will need to make a positive contribution to flood management and adaptation actions will need to have due regard to FRMPs.

The Water Framework Directive (WFD)^[31], The Water Environment Water Services (Scotland) Act 2003 (WEWS)^[32], and River Basin Management Plans (RBMP)s^[33]

• Scotland fulfils its water protection obligations under the WFD primarily through the WEWS which defines the establishment of RBMPs.
• These plans provide an assessment of the condition of Scotland’s water environment, and identify where efforts for protection and improvement must be targeted.

Cleaner Air for Scotland – The Road to a Healthier Future 2015^[34]

• Notes the importance of clean air for health, wellbeing and the environment and sets out a series of actions and frameworks to improve air quality in Scotland. Adaptation measures have the potential for secondary effects on air quality.

Historic Environment Scotland Policy Statement 2016^[35]

• Sets out how Historic Environment Scotland fulfils its regulatory and advisory roles.
• How it expects others to interpret and implement Scottish Planning Policy.

Scottish Natural Heritage Landscape Policy Framework^[36]

• Sets out an overarching aim for landscape based on four propositions of  “to safeguard and enhance the distinct identity, the diverse character and the special qualities of Scotland’s landscapes as a whole, so as to ensure tomorrows landscape contribute positively to people’s environment and are at least as attractive and valued as they are today”.

The Scottish Energy Strategy: The future of energy in Scotland (2017)^[37]

• Sets out the Government vision for the future energy system in Scotland.
• Articulates six priorities that consider both energy use and supply for heat, power and transport.
• Energy priorities and actions will need to be consistent with adaptation actions where relevant.

The National Transport Strategy (2006)^[38]

• Highlights the importance of travel to our society and sets out strategic transport outcomes.
• Meeting these will require adaptation responses which support the transport network.

A Land Use Strategy for Scotland (2016-2021)^[39]

• Sets a framework for sustainable land use.
• Required to contribute to obligations under the Climate Change (Scotland) Act (2009) on emissions reduction targets, to climate change adaptation objectives and to sustainable development.

National Planning Framework (NPF3)^[40] and Scottish Planning Policy (SPP)^[41]

• NPF3 is a long term spatial expression of the Government’s Economic Strategy, plans for development and investment in infrastructure.
• Identifies national developments and other strategically important development opportunities in Scotland.
• It supports development that facilitates adaptation to climate change, reduces resource consumption and lowers greenhouse gas emissions.
• SPP is Scottish Government Policy on how nationally important land use planning matters should be addressed.

Making things last: A Circular Economy Strategy for Scotland (2016)^[42]

• Sets out priorities for moving towards a more circular economy. Which will benefit the environment, economy and communities.
• It builds on Scotland’s progress in the zero waste and resource efficiency agendas.
• Waste reduction is fundamental to helping tackle climate change and to preserve national capital.
• Climate change adaptation responses should support the protection of waste management facilities and infrastructure.

Realising Scotland’s full potential in a digital world: A Digital Strategy for Scotland (2017)^[43]

• Sets out a vision for Scotland as a vibrant, inclusive, open and outward looking digital nation.