Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic (issue no.111)

Latest findings in modelling the COVID-19 epidemic in Scotland, both in terms of the spread of the disease through the population (epidemiological modelling) and of the demands it will place on the system, for example in terms of health care requirement.


Technical Annex

What levels of Covid-19 are indicated by wastewater data?

Table 1 provides population weighted daily averages for normalised wastewater Covid-19 levels in the weeks ending 13th October and 20th October 2022, with no estimate for error. This is given in Million gene copies per person per day. Coverage is given as percentage of inhabitants in each local authority covered by a wastewater Covid‑19 sampling site delivering data during this period.

Table 1. Average Covid-19 wastewater levels (Mgc/p/d) [4]

Local Authority (LA)

w/e 13th October

w/e 20th

October

Coverage

Aberdeen City

135

82

99 %

Aberdeenshire

76

46

44 %

Angus

114

50

68 %

Argyll and Bute

34

60

23 %

City of Edinburgh

134

66

98 %

Clackmannanshire

128

58

92 %

Dumfries and Galloway

78

41

39 %

Dundee City

152

65

100 %

East Ayrshire

122

42

72 %

East Dunbartonshire

119

51

99 %

East Lothian

122

55

74 %

East Renfrewshire

25

31

95 %

Falkirk

93

49

88 %

Fife

67

42

75 %

Glasgow City

59

39

98 %

Highland

70

17

20 %

Inverclyde

12

47

98 %

Midlothian

143

61

88 %

Moray

56

45

70 %

Na h-Eileanan Siar

14

0 %

North Ayrshire

81

47

92 %

North Lanarkshire

87

40

80 %

Orkney Islands

32

54

34 %

Perth and Kinross

98

23

45 %

Renfrewshire

42

40

97 %

Scottish Borders

109

73

59 %

Shetland Islands

4

24

29 %

South Ayrshire

127

50

88 %

South Lanarkshire

71

36

85 %

Stirling

16

22

63 %

West Dunbartonshire

61

30

98 %

West Lothian

42

40

93 %

Contact

Email: sgcentralanalysisdivision@gov.scot

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