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Paper 29th November 2004 - TTSAC(04)8


1 Introduction

1.1 The purpose of this paper is to inform members of the Committee about recent and forthcoming developments in statistics about some aspects of transport in Scotland, apart from the changes to the Scottish Household Survey and those which are the responsibility of the Department for Transport (DfT), which are covered in other papers. Because the Committee has been set up as part of the Scottish Executive (SE) National Statistics consultation arrangements, this paper covers mainly the work of the SE Transport Statistics branch, as this is the body whose activities are likely to be influenced most by the Committee's advice. However, other branches within SE and other organisations also have statistics about transport in Scotland, and their representatives at the meeting may wish to mention developments in their areas.

1.2 If you require any further information about any of the points covered in this paper, you are invited to contact:

Frank Dixon

direct line: 0131 244 7254

e-mail: frank.dixon@scotland.gsi.gov.uk

Or, if they prefer, members of the Committee are welcome to raise at the meeting any points which they feel are likely to be of interest to others.

1.3 Members of the Committee should receive a copy of each of the branch's publications within a few days of it being published. Please contact the Secretary if you did not receive a copy of any of the publications listed in Section 2.

2 Developments since the previous T&TSAC meeting

(16th September 2003 - NB: these notes mainly cover SE Transport Statistic s branch developments)

2.1 Road Accidents Scotland 2002 was published in November 2003. Following consultation with the Liaison Group on Road Accident Statistics (LGRAS) it included, for the first time, a table showing slight casualty numbers, the new DfT traffic estimates for all roads and the resulting slight casualty rates for individual Local Authority areas, and a table showing statistics for each Police Force area related to progress towards the three national targets.

2.2 Transport Indicators for Scotland - following the discussions at the previous Committee meeting and at the Transport Statistics Users Group / Napier University Transport Research Institute seminar, members of the Committee, the TRi/TSUG e-mail list and the ScotStat Transport e-mail list were invited to comment on the indicators. Having considered the views expressed, with policy colleagues, we met members of the Committee's sub-group and representatives of the Society of Chief Officers of Transportation in Scotland (SCOTS), and discussed the changes which the Executive intended to make for the next edition. We are grateful to all concerned for their advice and suggestions. A draft was subsequently put to the Minister for Transport, but it was a while before he could consider it (he had to give priority to other matters, such as the Transport White Paper - to which we contributed several graphs) The Minister then decided that the next edition should appear towards the end of 2004, so that it could take account of points arising from the Spending Review.

2.3 Following the conclusion of the GB-wide road accident statistics Quality Review, we distributed documentation of the new "Stats 19" format and the "Stats 21" record format and validation checks to police forces, local authorities and other interested parties in December 2003.

2.4 We published an updated version of the Key Transport Statistics card in December 2003, after DfT published the "bus and coach" figures for 2002-03 and some other figures.

2.5 We made available, on the SE Web site, updated versions of some of the tables from Scottish Transport Statistics, in cases where a further year's data became available several months before the next edition was to be published (e.g. we made available updated versions of some Scottish Transport Statistics tables that included DfT's bus and coach figures for 2002-03).

2.6 Following consultation with LGRAS, we made available on the SE Web site some extra tables of road accident statistics, giving time series back to 1981.

2.7 Household Transport in 2002: some Scottish Household Survey results was published in January 2004. It included analyses of the results of questions (added to the survey at the start of 2002) on the usage of, and views on, trains and local buses.

2.8 Transport across Scotland in 2001 and 2002: some SHS results for parts of Scotland was published in February 2004. It provided some initial analyses of trends for local authority areas, by comparing the results of the survey's first two two-year sweeps (i.e. 1999/2000 and 2001/2002).

2.9 Each quarter, we provided figures for the SHS quarterly releases, and further SHS results (such as initial findings from some of the new SHS Transport-related questions introduced in 2003) in short articles for the Scottish Transport Review.

2.10 Bus and Coach Statistics 2002-03 was published in March 2004. It included, for the first time, more detailed analysis of some questions which were added to the SHS at the start of 2002.

2.11 Scottish Household Survey Travel Diary results for 2002 was published in May 2004. It included new tables on (e.g.) car occupancy rates, council areas of journey origins and destinations, and journeys into and within Edinburgh and Glasgow.

2.12 Contractors led by Napier University Transport Research Institute have been commissioned to prepare an SHS Topic Reports on "Accessibility and Transport". The aim of such reports is to provide "in depth" analysis of particular topics, focusing on the results which are relevant to particular policy issues, and looking at the SHS's results in the context of information available from other sources. Another Topic Report, on "Modal Shift", should be commissioned soon.

2.13 LGRAS met in May 2004, and discussed (inter alia) the preparations for the implementation of the changes arising from the GB-wide road accident statistics Quality Review, possible changes to our publications and the extra tables made available on our Web site, and whether information from the road accident statistics and informatio n about subsequent criminal proceedings can be brought together.

2.14 Key 2003 Road Accident Statistics was published in June 2004. Following consultation with LGRAS, it included new tables giving the numbers of accidents and casualties, by severity, for each Police Force and Council area.

2.15 Scottish Transport Statistics no. 23 / 2004 edition was published in August 2004. Further improvements were made, in the light of comments and suggestions from members of the Committee and other users of the publication. It had an extra 32 pages, including about 20 new tables on a range of topics (e.g. "cross-border" passenger and freight figures, rail performance and passenger satisfaction, trends in traffic by Council area, the SCOTS survey of local authority roads, and some results from the new trunk road network "congestion monitoring" system [see below] and SHS questions about delays due to traffic congestion), plus several improvements to the existing material. A survey of users was conducted. A questionnaire and a reply-paid envelope were included with every copy. For those who use only the "on-line" publication, electronic versions of the questionnaire were made available on the Scottish Transport Statistics page of the Transport Statistics Web site, and links to that page were included in e-mails to the TSUG/TRi and ScotStat Transport lists.

2.16 Paula McClements joined the branch in September 2004, filling a part-time Assistant Statistician post which had been vacant for almost a year. She took over as Secretary of the Committee.

2.17 Our computing colleagues started to develop our road accident statistics computer system to take account of the changes to the "Stats 19" which take effect in January 2005, and we are involved in the "user-testing" of the new system. As well as handling the Contributory Factors, and other new data which will be collected from the start of 2005, the new computer system should link better with GIS facilities, and hence with certain types of geographically-based information, such as the Index of Multiple Deprivation and the urban/rural classification.

2.18 We are contributing to the DfT-led Quality Review of the Road Traffic Statistics.

2.19 Policy colleagues commissioned contractors to produce a Guide to Scottish Ports and an accompanying database of information on Scottish ports. This draws on the maritime statistics data collected for DfT, and information from other sources, including an ad-hoc survey of Scottish ports. The Guide and database should provide some information about many "minor" ports (e.g. "noncommercial" ones, which are not covered by DfT's statistics).

2.20 In 2003, approval was given to implement the congestion monitoring regime proposed in 2002, and as a result a number of Automatic Traffic Counting (ATC) sites were enhanced and new sites installed to collect speed information on a 24x7 basis to enable the production of various congestion indices for the trunk road network. A series of Floating Vehicle surveys was also carried out to produce calibration factors to turn these spot-based indices into route-length values. A snapshot of one of these indices (in the form of lost time per vehicle/kilometre by month by route) was included in Scottish Transport Statistics in August 2004. A more varied set of indices are included in a new congestion monitoring report, which is currently awaiting final approval. The Floating Vehicle surveys for 2004 - to be completed by the end of November 2004 - are more geared towards measuring a sample of the actual congestion experienced in the queues at priority junctions, and the report for 2004, to be published in 2005, will be amended to incorporate a component relating to this particular aspect of congestion.

2.21 The Transport Model for Scotland (TMfS) is now available for use by Local Authorities and other strategic bodies in Scotland. Finalisation of the support documentation and compilation of the release DVD will be complete in the very near future to allow potential users access to the model. TMfS supersedes the Central Scotland Transport Model (CSTM3) by enhancing it and extending it to include Aberdeen and the north east of Scotland. It also incorporates up-dated planning data from the 2001 census, Scottish Household Survey and various other sources of data including input from all Scottish Local Planning Authorities. The planning data is contained within the Transport/ Economic/ Land-use Model of Scotland (TELMoS) which is a specific interaction module within TMfS. Further information can be obtained from the TMfS website www.tmfs.org.uk .

3 Forthcoming developments (again, mainly SE Transport Statistics branch matters)

3.1 This section describes the branch's current plans, which are, of course, subject to revision in the light of developments and the advice of the Committee.

3.2 Transport Indicators for Scotland: we will assist policy colleagues to develop these further, in the light of comments from members of the Committee and others (please see the separate paper on this).

3.3 Household Transport in 2003: some Scottish Household Survey results will be published on 16 November 2004. It will analyse the results of questions that were added to the survey in April 2003, on topics such as changes in commuters' modes of travel to work, and the reasons for them; drivers' use of their cars for journeys for certain purposes, and whether they could use other modes of transport; and people's use of new methods of obtaining journey planning information.

3.4 Road Accidents Scotland 2003 will be published on 23 November 2004. Some changes will be made, following consultation with LGRAS - e.g. it will include, for the first time, tables showing the numbers of casualties who were recorded as being school pupils en route to or from school, the variation from year to year in quarterly casualty numbers, and vehicle involvement rates. We will also make available on the Web updated versions of the extra road accident statistics tables.

3.5 We will publish at least one updated version of Key Transport Statistics before the next edition of Scottish Transport Statistics - for example, in December 2004, after DfT publishes the "bus and coach" figures for 2003-04 and some other figures.

3.6 We will also make available, on the SE Web site, updated versions of some of the tables from Scottish Transport Statistics, in cases where a further year's data become available several months before the next edition is published (e.g. after DfT publishes the National Travel Survey figures for Scotland for 2002 and 2003 taken together).

3.7 Bus and Coach Statistics 2003-2004 should be published in March 2005. The tables will be revised to take account of changes made to the data collected by DfT's survey of Public Service Vehicle operators, to provide more detailed analyses of some of the information collected by the SHS, and to give the results of some new questions added to the survey in 2003.

3.8 Scottish Household Survey Travel Diary results: 2003 edition should be published in March 2005. New tables will analyse the information about (e.g.) drivers' experience of congestion, parking, delays to bus and train passengers' trips, and the types of shopping trip, which was collected by questions that were added to the survey in April 2003.

3.9 Travel by Scottish residents: some National Travel Survey results for 2002 and 2003 should be published in April 2005. It will provide information about longer-term trends in personal travel: a few NTS results for Scotland are available back to 1975/76, with more going back to 1985/86. This bulletin is published triennially because the NTS sample size for Scotland is too small for detailed analysis of a single year's figures.

3.10 With our computing colleagues, we will complete the testing of the new road accidents computer system. We will process Police Forces' first "Stats 19" returns in the new format, scrutinise the data and liaise with the Police to resolve any "teething troubles".

3.11 LGRAS should meet in May/June 2005, to discuss (e.g.) points arising from the implementation of the "Stats 19" changes in January 2005, and possible further improvements to Road Accidents Scotland.

3.12 Key 2003 Road Accident Statistics should be published in June 2005.

3.13 Scottish Transport Statistics no. 24 / 2005 edition should be published in August 2005. Improvements will be made, in the light of the advice of the Committee and the results of the recent survey of users of the publication (see please see the separate paper on this).

3.14 We will scrutinise the first results of the SHS's new Transport-related questions, and provide some initial findings for the quarterly releases of some key SHS results. We will also provide further SHS Transport-related results in short articles for the quarterly Scottish Transport Review .