The Budget Process Review Group (BPRG) recommended that the Scottish Government ‘explore the feasibility of providing a distributional analysis, by equality characteristic, of the taxation, expenditure and social security proposals in the Budget’. The scoping paper below considers the models and data that could be used to conduct distributional analysis according to the BPRG’s recommendation. It concludes that such an analysis would be possible excepting breakdowns by certain equality characteristics.
In October 2018, the Scottish Government held a seminar on distributional analysis involving experts from fourteen external organisations, together with internal analysts in finance, social security, equalities, economic modelling, and strategy. The second paper below summarises the outcomes of the expert seminar, considering the data and modelling issues involved in improving the Scottish Government’s approach to distributional analysis and outlining its next steps.