Quarterly National Accounts Scotland
2018 Quarter 1
A National Statistics Publication for Scotland
Date: 15 August 2018
This publication reports a detailed breakdown of the components of GDP, including an updated second estimate for growth in 2018Q1. In this release, there are also updates and revisions to annual and quarterly GDP growth and national accounts data back to 1998.
Updated estimate of GDP growth for 2018 Quarter 1
- Scotland’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 0.4% in real terms during the first quarter of 2018, revised up from the first estimate of 0.2% published on 27 June. The equivalent growth rate for the UK as a whole during the first quarter was 0.2%.
- In the first quarter of 2018, output in the Services sector grew by 0.4%, output in the Production sector grew by 1.0%, and output in the Construction sector fell by 1.4%. Output in Construction has been revised up from a first estimate of -3.5% due to the data updates and methodology improvements detailed in this release.
- Compared to the same quarter last year, Scotland’s GDP has grown by 1.3% in real terms, revised up from a first estimate of 0.8%. Equivalent UK growth over the year was 1.2%.
Other Quarterly National Accounts Results
- All statistics have been updated in line with the annual supply and use tables for 1998-2015 published on 18 July 2018.
- During financial year 2017-18, the value of Scotland’s onshore GDP is estimated at £156.5 billion in total, or £28,797 per person, in current prices.
- Including a geographical share of UK extra-regio (offshore and overseas) economic activity, Scottish GDP is estimated at £170.4 billion in total, or £31,367 per person during 2017-18.
- Manufactured Exports make up around half of the total value of exports from Scotland to the rest of the world (excluding oil and gas). The Index of Manufactured Exports (IME) increased by 3.6% in volume terms during the first quarter of 2018. On a rolling annual basis, comparing the most recent four quarters to the previous four quarters, the volume of manufactured exports increased by 8.7%.
ABOUT THIS PUBLICATION
This publication includes an updated estimate of Scotland’s GDP growth for the period of January to March 2018 (Quarter 1). This second estimate includes new industry weights for 1998-2015, following the publication of the annual Supply and Use Tables on 18 July 2018, and other updates to data sources. As a result, GDP growth has been open for revison in all quarters back to 1998.
Quarterly National Accounts Scotland (QNAS) also includes:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the onshore economy and components of all three of the output, income and expenditure approaches;
- alternative estimates of GDP for Scotland including two illustrative shares of UK extra-regio (offshore and overseas) activities attributable to Scotland;
- the Index of Manufactured Exports (IME);
- Household Sector income and expenditure accounts for Scotland, including Gross Disposable Household Income (GDHI) and the Savings Ratio;
- Scottish public sector revenues.
This release of QNAS includes the annual updates to data sources and weights following the publication of Supply and Use Tables for 1998-2015 on 18 July 2018, meaning that all results have been revised back to the start of 1998. In addition to the regular annual updates, the following changes have also been made:
- The methods used for estimating short-term growth in construction output have been updated with new annual and quarterly data sources.
- Following developments in UK national and regional accounts, the accounts for Gross Disposable Household Income (GDHI) no longer include data for the NPISH sector.
Further information on the updates to the statistics is available in the relevant sections of the statistical bulletin and in the background notes.