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Gross Domestic Product for Scotland, 2011 Q2

DescriptionA National Statistics Publication for Scotland. Estimates of Scottish GDP at constant basic prices, also known as Gross Value Added (GVA), for the second quarter of 2011.
ISBN
Official Print Publication Date
Website Publication DateOctober 19, 2011

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
2nd QUARTER 2011

A National Statistics Publication for Scotland

Subject: The Economy Coverage: Scotland

Date: 19 October 2011

For a Portable Document Format (.pdf) version of the statistical bulletin, use the following link: GDP 2011Q2 PDF

To download the tables in Excel format, use the following link: GDP 2011Q2 XLS

Main Findings

Scottish Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in constant basic prices grew by 0.1 per cent during the second quarter of 2011.

The largest contribution to growth was from the Production sector, primarily driven by strong growth in Electricity, Gas and Water Supply. The Services sector grew by 0.1 per cent, while output in the Construction sector fell 2.3 per cent.

On an annual basis, comparing the most recent four quarters to the previous four quarters (4Q-on-4Q), GDP grew by 1.1 per cent.

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GDP at constant basic prices
Percentage change: latest quarter on previous quarter (seasonally adjusted)
Total GDPProductionConstructionServices
2010Q1+0.2-0.8+5.1+0.0
Q2+1.1+2.0+8.3+0.2
Q3+0.5+0.1+6.5-0.1
Q4-0.6-0.7-1.5-0.4
2011Q1+0.2+0.9-2.9+0.4
Q2+0.1+1.7-2.3+0.1


GDP Analysed by Industry Sector

Scottish GDP in constant basic prices grew by 0.1 per cent during the second quarter of 2011, following growth of 0.2 per cent in 2011 Q1. On an annual basis (4Q-on-4Q), GDP grew by 1.1 per cent in the latest quarter, compared to 1.4 per cent in 2011 Q1.

Services sector output grew by 0.1 per cent over the quarter, and was flat on an annual basis (4Q-on-4Q). Production sector output grew by 1.7 per cent over the quarter, and by 1.5 per cent annually. Construction sector output fell 2.3 per cent over the quarter, and grew by 11.8 per cent annually.

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Among the main sectors of the economy the largest contribution to growth was from the Production sector, mostly due to strong growth in Electricity, Gas & Water Supply following a decline in that sector in 2011Q1. There was also growth in the Manufacturing sector.

Total output in the Services sector increased due to growth in the Distribution, Hotels & Catering sector, but with small declines in other sub-sectors. The Construction sector made a significant negative contribution to growth this quarter.

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Index of Production

Total production output grew by 1.7 per cent during 2011 Q2, following growth of 0.9 per cent in the first quarter.

Manufacturing output grew by 0.2 per cent. The main contributors to this growth were Food and Drink, Transport Equipment, and Mechanical Engineering. The largest falls were in Electrical & Instrument Engineering, and the Other Manufacturing sector.

Output in Mining and Quarrying fell by 6.3 per cent, following growth of 2.6 per cent in the previous quarter.

Electricity, Gas & Water Supply ouput grew by 12.4 per cent in the latest quarter, following a fall of 6.5 per cent in 2011 Q1.

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Index of Construction

Construction output fell 2.3 per cent during 2011 Q2, following a decline of 2.9 per cent in 2011 Q1.

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Distribution, Hotels and Catering

Output in Distribution, Hotels and Catering increased 1.0 per cent during 2011 Q2 following growth of 0.8 per cent in 2011 Q1. There was growth in the latest quarter in Retail & Wholesale, and a fall in Hotels & Catering.

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Transport, Storage and Communication

Transport, storage and communication fell 0.1 per cent during 2011 Q2, following growth of 0.2 per cent in 2011 Q1.

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Business Services and Finance

Output in Business Services and Finance declined by 0.2 per cent in 2011 Q2, following growth of 0.6 per cent in 2011 Q1. Output in Real Estate & Business Services grew by 0.1 per cent.

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Government and Other Services

Output in Government and Other Services declined by 0.1 per cent during 2011 Q2, following zero growth during 2011 Q1. The Other Services sector fell 1.7 per cent.

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Change in Standard Industrial Classification

United Kingdom GDP estimates produced by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) are now published according the new 2007 Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) instead of the 2003 SIC.

The Standard Industrial Classification system is used to group companies into industrial sectors within the economy - for example, manufacturing, construction, or financial services. The updated 2007 SIC is designed to provide a more appropriate reflection of modern business activities than the 2003 SIC, which was itself only a minor revision to the classification drawn up in 1992.

The largest changes to the classification are the increase in activities included in the Information & Communications sector, and the creation of a separate Water Supply & Waste Management sector including sewage, recycling and nuclear fuel processing, resulting in a relatively smaller Manufacturing sector.

The results for Scotland published in this bulletin continue to be produced using the 2003 SIC. To aid comparison with UK results at the broad industry level, the underlying data have been reclassified to provide results for Scotland on a 2007 SIC basis. These are provided in Annex A.

A full reclassification to the 2007 SIC will become available following the production of ONS Regional Accounts on that basis, and updated Input-Output tables for Scotland.

Effect of SIC Reclassification on Growth Rate Estimates

The new classification does not result in differences to total GVA. There are however changes to the relative sizes of industrial sectors, resulting in small differences between industry-level growth rates when comparing the two sets of results.

In Scotland these differences are mainly due to a relative increase in the total size of the Production sector - growing from 17.1% of the economy to 17.5% - and proportionate decrease in the size of the Services sector. The creation of the Water Supply & Waste Management sub-sector has also caused a relative decrease in the size of the Manufacturing sector - falling from 13% of the economy to 12.4%. Within the Services sector there is a relative increase in the size of Information and Communication sector, at the expense of Business Services and Other Services.

In the latest quarter, the only difference between headline growth rates for the main sectors of the economy is that output in Production is shown to grow by 1.7 per cent using 2003 SIC definitions, and by 1.6 per cent using the new SIC 2007 definitions. This relative decrease in Production growth is balanced by a slight increase in Services, although the difference is not large enough to change the headline growth rate of 0.1 per cent.