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Modelling Scenarios for CAP Pillar 1 Area Payments using Macaulay Land Capability for Agriculture (& Less Favoured Area Designations)

DescriptionThis analysis was commissioned to provide evidence to the Inquiry into Future Agricultural Support for Scotland & considers the redistributive impacts of alternative scenarios for area payments under an area-based CAP pillar 1 payments scheme.
ISBN978-0-7559-9545
Official Print Publication Date
Website Publication DateNovember 03, 2010

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Final Report

Kevin Buchan, Keith Matthews, Dave Miller, Willie Towers
The Macaulay Land Use Research Institute

ISBN 978 0 7559 9545 5 (Web only publication)
DPPAS 10849

This document is also available in pdf format (22MB)

Contents

Executive Summary
Overview
Caveats to the Analysis
Headline Results
Existing and New Claims
Overall Redistribution
Redistribution within Regions and Farm Types
Redistribution across Regions and Farm Types
Changes in Distribution of Payments
Stocking Rate Effects
Acknowledgments

1 Introduction
1.1 Objectives
1.2 Overview of the Analytical Framework
1.2.1 Data Collation
1.2.2 Data Integration
1.2.3 Scenario Analysis

2 Materials
2.1 The Land Capability for Agriculture Classification
2.2 Less Favoured Area Designations
2.3 IACS Data
2.3.1 Baseline - Current SFPS Entitlements
2.3.2 IACS Field Claims
2.3.3 Field Boundary Maps

3 Methodology
3.1 Data Collation - IACS Data Quality Checks
3.2 Data Integration - Defining Included, Excluded and New Areas
3.3 Determining the LCA Mix for the Mapped Areas
3.4 Determining the LCA Mix for the Unmapped Area
3.5 Data Integration - Determining the LFA Mix for the Mapped and Unmapped Areas
3.6 Data Integration - Using Stocking Rate as an Eligibility Criterion
3.6.1 Overview of Calculations

4 Scenario Analysis
4.1 Payment Rates
4.2 Calculating Scenario Area Payments

5 Results
5.1 Interpreting the Results Tables
5.2 Change in Payment
5.3 Change in Payment - number of businesses
5.4 Change in Payment - percentage of businesses
5.5 Total Payment
5.6 Distribution of Business Payments
5.7 Average Business Payment
5.8 Average Payment per Hectare

6 Mapped Results
6.1 Introduction to Mapped Results
6.2 Methodology of Mapping
6.3 Map of Current (Baseline) Single Farm Payment
6.4 Presentation of Scenario Maps
6.4.1 Map of Area Payment Rate - LCA-S1 (Interim Report)
6.4.2 Map of Area Payment Rate - LCA-S2 (Consultation A)
6.4.3 Map of Area Payment Rate - LCA-S3 (Consultation B)
6.4.4 Map of Area Payment Rate - LCA-S4 (Flat Rate)
6.4.5 Map of Area Payment Rate - LCA-S5 (Reverse)
6.4.6 Map of Area Payment Rate - LFA-S1 (Interim Report)
6.4.7 Map of Area Payment Rate - LFA-S2 (Consultation A)
6.4.8 Map of Area Payment Rate - LFA-S3 (Consultation B)
6.5 Presentation of Change Maps
6.5.1 Map of Change in Payment Rate - LCA-S1 (Interim Report)
6.5.2 Map of Change in Payment Rate - LCA-S2 (Consultation A)
6.5.3 Map of Change in Payment Rate - LCA-S3 (Consultation B)
6.5.4 Map of Change in Payment Rate - LCA-S4 (Flat Rate)
6.5.5 Map of Change in Payment Rate - LCA-S5 (Reverse)
6.5.6 Map of Change in Payment Rate - LFA-S1 (Interim Report)
6.5.7 Map of Change in Payment Rate - LFA-S2 (Consultation A)
6.5.8 Map of Change in Payment Rate - LFA-S3 (Consultation B)
6.6 Summary of Mapped Results

7 Key Findings
7.1 Existing and New Claims
7.2 Overall Redistribution
7.3 Redistribution within Regions and Farm Types
7.4 Redistribution across Regions and Farm Types
7.5 Changes in Distribution of Payments
7.6 Stocking Rate Effects
7.7 Caveats to the Analysis

Technical Appendices

Appendix A: Supplementary Information Relating to Data
Appendix A.1: Included Land Uses
Appendix A.2: Excluded Land Uses
Appendix A.3: Baseline Flattening
Appendix A.4: Unique Users per Field
Appendix A.5: Land Let Out to Others

Appendix B: Regional Analysis - Claims, Rentals and Ownership
Appendix B.1: Regional Analysis of Claim Data
Appendix B.2: Regional Analysis of Seasonal Rentals
Appendix B.3: Regional Analysis of Ownership Data

Appendix C: Classification Tables to Assist Interpretation of Results
Appendix C.1: Classification of Included Areas

Appendix D: Stocking Rate
Appendix D.1: Stocking Rate Coefficients - Sensitivity Testing
Appendix D.2: Breakdown of Stocking Rate Exclusions
Appendix D.3: Other livestock types
Appendix D.4: Applying stocking rate threshold to scenarios
Appendix D.5: Classification of Businesses

Appendix E: Additional Maps
Appendix E.1: Claimed vs. Unclaimed Fields
Appendix E.2: Common Grazing
Appendix E.3: Seasonal Rentals
Appendix E.4: IACS Land Use Eligibility
Appendix E.5: IACS Land Use Eligibility (Excluded Only)
Appendix E.6: Proportion of Polygon which is an Included Land Use

Appendix F: Summary of Issues Related to the Interpretation of Results
Appendix F.1: Issues
Appendix F.2: Minor Issues

Appendix G: Summary of GIS Implementation Issues

List of Figures

Figure 1: Overview of analysis
Figure 2: LCA Map
Figure 3: Coverage of 1:50,000 scale mapping
Figure 4: LFA Map
Figure 5: IACS and other datasets used within the analytical framework
Figure 6: IACS Permanent and Seasonal Land Forms
Figure 7: Defining the Included and Excluded and New Areas
Figure 8: NUTS2 Regions of Scotland
Figure 9: NUTS3 regions of Scotland
Figure 10: Interpreting the Change in Payment tables
Figure 11: Change in payment - quartile analysis
Figure 12: Share of payment by Farm Type
Figure 13: Share of payment by Region
Figure 14: Total business payment - quartile analysis
Figure 15: Number of Unique Users per Field
Figure 16: Current (Baseline) Single Farm Payment €/Ha
Figure 17: LCA-S1 Area Payment €/Ha (Interim Report)
Figure 18: LCA-S2 Area Payment €/Ha (Consultation A)
Figure 19: LCA-S3 Area Payment €/Ha (Consultation B)
Figure 20: LCA-S4 Area Payment €/Ha (Flat Rate)
Figure 21: LCA-S5 Area Payment €/Ha (Reverse)
Figure 22: LFA-S1 Area Payment €/Ha (Interim Report)
Figure 23: LFA-S2 Area Payment €/Ha (Consultation A)
Figure 24: LFA-S3 Area Payment €/Ha (Consultation B)
Figure 25: LCA-S1 Change in Payment €/Ha (Interim Report)
Figure 26: LCA-S2 Change in Payment €/Ha (Consultation A)
Figure 27: LCA-S3 Change in Payment €/Ha (Consultation B)
Figure 28: LCA-S4 Change in Payment €/Ha (Flat Rate)
Figure 29: LCA-S5 Change in Payment €/Ha (Reverse)
Figure 30: LFA-S1 Change in Payment €/Ha (Interim Report)
Figure 31: LFA-S2 Change in Payment €/Ha (Consultation A)
Figure 32: LFA-S3 Change in Payment €/Ha (Consultation B)
Figure 33: Deriving the baseline Payments per ha.
Figure 34: Region of owner's main farm code
Figure 35: Effect of weighting on excluded area
Figure 36: Effect of stocking rate threshold on excluded area
Figure 37: Claimed and Unclaimed Fields
Figure 38: Common Grazing
Figure 39: Seasonal Rentals
Figure 40: Included, Excluded and Unclaimed Land
Figure 41: Excluded Land ( IACS Land Use)
Figure 42: Proportion of Land Parcel with Included Land Use
Figure 43: Built-up example
Figure 44: Inland water examples
Figure 45: Example showing IACS polygons that do not intersect with LCA

List of Tables

Table 1: LCA Scenario Payment Rates
Table 2: LFA Scenario Payment Rates
Table 3: LFA & Fragility combinations
Table 4: IACS Field Polygon datasets
Table 5: Multi-step adjustment of SAF data
Table 6: Scotland area breakdown
Table 7: Allocation algorithm example
Table 8: Scotland area LCA breakdown (in thousands of hectares)
Table 9: LFA Breakdown (in thousands of hectares)
Table 10: Scenarios
Table 11: LCA payment rates
Table 12: LFA payment rates
Table 13: Change in payment - summary
Table 14: Change in payment - summary (%)
Table 15: Change in payment by farm type - net increase/reduction
Table 16: Change in payment by farm type - zero baseline increase
Table 17: Change in payment by farm type - net increase/reduction excluding zero baseline increase
Table 18: Change in payment by farm type - significant increases
Table 19: Change in payment by farm type - significant reductions
Table 20: Change in payment by region - net increase/reduction
Table 21: Change in payment by region - zero baseline increase
Table 22: Change in payment by region - net change excluding zero baseline increase
Table 23: Change in payment by region - significant increases
Table 24: Change in payment by region - significant reductions
Table 25: Change in payment summary - number of businesses
Table 26: Change in payment by farm type - net number of businesses increasing/reducing
Table 27: Change in payment by farm type - number of businesses with a zero baseline and increase
Table 28: Change in payment by farm type - net number of businesses excluding zero baseline increases
Table 29: Change in payment by farm type - number of businesses with significant increase
Table 30: Change in payment by farm type - number of businesses with significant reduction
Table 31: Change in payment by region - net number of businesses increasing/reducing
Table 32: Change in payment by region - number of businesses with a zero baseline and increase
Table 33: Change in payment by region - net number of businesses excluding zero baseline increases
Table 34: Change in payment by region - number of businesses with significant increase
Table 35: Change in area by region - number of businesses with significant reduction
Table 36: Change in payment summary - percentage of businesses
Table 37: Change in payment by farm type - net percentage of businesses increasing/reducing
Table 38: Change in payment by farm type - percentage of businesses with a zero baseline and increase
Table 39: Change in payment by farm type - net percentage of businesses excluding zero baseline increases
Table 40: Change in payment by farm type - percentage of businesses with significant increase
Table 41: Change in payment by farm type - percentage of businesses with significant reduction
Table 42: Change in payment by region - net percentage of businesses
Table 43: Change in payment by region - percentage of businesses with a zero baseline and increase
Table 44: Change in payment by region - net percentage of businesses excluding zero baseline increases
Table 45: Change in payment by region - percentage of businesses with significant increase
Table 46: Change in payment by region - percentage of businesses with significant reduction
Table 47: Total payment by farm type
Table 48: Total payment by region
Table 49: Average business payment by farm type
Table 50: Average business payment by region.
Table 51: Average payment per ha by farm type
Table 52: Average payment per ha by region
Table 53: Summary from Usership Analysis
Table 54: Land use breakdowns (after data adjustments)
Table 55: Claim data by owner NUTS2 region (columns) and user NUTS2 region (rows)
Table 56: Claim data by owner NUTS2 region (columns) and user NUTS3 region (rows)
Table 57: Seasonal rentals by owner NUTS2 region (columns) and renter NUTS2 region (rows)
Table 58: Seasonal rentals by owner NUTS2 region (columns) and renter NUTS3 region (rows)
Table 59: Total included area by LCA class
Table 60: Total included area by LFA class
Table 61: Total included area by robust and main farm types
Table 62: Total included area by region
Table 63: Effect of sheep weighting on excluded area
Table 64: Effect of cattle weighting on excluded area
Table 65: Effect of stocking rate threshold on excluded area
Table 66: Regional breakdown of area excluded for failing to meet minimum stocking rate
Table 67: Farm type breakdown of area excluded for failing to meet minimum stocking rate criteria
Table 68: LCA breakdown of area excluded for failing to meet minimum stocking rate
Table 69: LFA breakdown of area excluded for failing to meet minimum stocking rate
Table 70: Stocking rate by region
Table 71: Number of businesses by region and farm type
Table 72: Average business area by region and LCA class; also showing average total area per business
Table 73: Average business area by farm type and LCA class; also showing average total business area
Table 74: Average business area by region and LFA class; also showing average total business area by region
Table 75: Average business area by farm type and LFA class; also showing total business area by farm type