GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) FOR SCOTLAND FOR THE 1st QUARTER OF 2010
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GDP 2010Q1 PDF
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GDP 2010Q1 XLS
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21 July 2010
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in constant basic prices, also referred to as Gross Value Added (GVA), in Scotland fell by 3.5 per cent over the year to the end of 2010 Q1 and remained at the same level between the fourth quarter of 2009 and the first quarter of 2010, according to provisional estimates released today by Scotland's Chief Statistician.
GDP Growth Rates 2004 -2010 Q1
The main findings of the latest figures are:
· GDP remained at the same level between the fourth quarter of 2009 and the first quarter of 2010 (seasonally adjusted).
· In the year to end-March 2010, the Scottish service sector fell by 2.4 per cent, the production sector fell by 7.1 per cent, and the construction sector fell by 8.3 per cent.
· In the first quarter of 2010, the service sector fell by 0.2 per cent, the production sector remained unchanged and the construction sector grew by 2.8 per cent.
· The UK figures show that GDP on a comparable basis (constant basic prices) fell by 3.3 per cent in the year to end-March 2010 and grew by 0.3 per cent in the first quarter of 2010.
· Over the year, the UK experienced a 2.4 per cent fall in services, a 7.2 per cent fall in production and a fall of 8.0 per cent in the construction sector.
· In the first quarter of 2010, the UK service sector grew by 0.3 per cent, the production sector grew by 1.0 per cent and the construction sector fell by 1.6 per cent.
· During the first quarter of 2010, service sector output in Scotland fell by 0.2 per cent. Within services, financial services (+2.5%) and public administration, education and health (+0.8%) experienced growth. There was a fall in output from other services (-0.1%), transport, storage and communication (-0.2%), hotels and catering (-0.5%), retail and wholesale (-1.0%) and real estate and business services (-1.9%).
· Overall output in the production sector remained unchanged from the fourth quarter of 2009. Within production there was growth in mining and quarrying (+3.0%) and electricity, gas and water supply (+0.7%), while the manufacturing sector experienced a fall of 0.3%.
· Within manufacturing there was growth in food, drink and tobacco (+1.5%), chemicals and man-made fibres (+2.7%), other manufacturing (+0.7%), textiles, footwear, leather and clothing (+4.7%) and metals and metal products (+0.5%). There was falling output in refined petroleum and nuclear fuel (-0.4%) and engineering and allied industries (-3.5%).
Definitions and Methodology
1. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a measure of the value added to materials and other inputs in the production of goods and services by resident organisations; before allowing for depreciation or capital consumption. Net receipts from interest, profits and dividends abroad are excluded. The estimates produced in this publication measure GDP at basic prices, also referred to as Gross Value Added (GVA).
2. Scottish GVA estimates will generally be less reliable than the equivalent estimates for the UK, primarily because the UK figures are produced by balancing three independent sets of estimates (Output (GVA), Income and Expenditure-based approaches).
3. Furthermore, the survey data for Scotland tend to be based on smaller numbers of units, making figures for Scotland more likely to be susceptible to statistical variance. Statistical variance in estimates is directly proportional to the variability in the underlying population of interest. In the current economic climate, the variability in the economy is increased and users should bare this in mind when interpreting all economic indicators.
4. These GVA estimates will move to SIC 2007 when the main UK National Accounts aggregates start to be published on that basis. This quarters figures are based on SIC 2003 classification with one exception - the repair sector, which is surveyed as part of the main services survey inquiry is now classified included in 'Other Services'. The retail figures published in the Retail Sales Index for Scotland are on a comparable basis with the retail figures in this bulletin.
5. The Scottish National Accounts Project (SNAP) is exploring the feasibility of producing income and expenditure measures of GDP for Scotland. Further information is available at http://www.scotland.gov.uk/SNAP
6. Annual chainlinking is the technique used to compile the overall measure of GVA growth and also the other, lower-level published aggregates. The resultant indices represent changes in the value added, at constant prices, in the production of goods and services in individual industries. These industries are compiled using the standard industrial classification SIC2003.
7. The Office for National Statistics updated the weights used to compile their aggregate measures, including GVA, in the 2009 Q1 Quarterly National Accounts published on the 30th June 2009. The latest weights used to produce growth rates for Scotland in this publication continue to relate to the year 2004 whilst the weights used in the UK statistics relate to the calendar year 2005.
8. The data used in the production of these quarterly GDP estimates are seasonally adjusted in accordance with the European System of Accounts guidelines and international practice.
9. The X-12-ARIMA technique is used where appropriate to remove regular seasonal peaks and troughs so that the underlying trends and other features of the data are easier to identify. Further information about the seasonal adjustment of the GDP data can be found in section A3 of Scottish Economic Statistics 2006 ( www.scotland.gov.uk/stats/ses).
10. The Scottish GDP indices are under a continuing program of methodological development which is regularly peer reviewed by the Scottish Economic Statistics Consultants Group (SESCG). Information about SESCG, including papers and minutes from recent meetings, is available on the Scottish Government website at http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Economy/ScotStat/comms.
11. The methodology improvements which were planned for this publication have been postponed until further quality assurance has been completed. These changes include:
· Incorporation of updated weights and re-indexation to 2007 to reflect updated information from forthcoming Scottish Input-Output analysis;
· Benchmarking of long term trend information to reflect the Input Output analysis in the underlying current price data used in this publication ;
· Improved measures of health service output;
· Incorporation of ratio estimates for the Index of Production.
12. Series are derived from indicators based on data from a wide range of sources. Examples include: deflated turnover, deflated production, the volume of a good or service sold or produced and, for some parts of the public sector, employee numbers.
13. The quarterly Scottish GDP estimates are published within 4 months (approximately 16 weeks) of the end of the quarter to which they relate.
14. The indices published within this Statistics Publication Notice are grouped according to the 2003 revised Standard Industrial Classification. The four broad groupings of industries are:
(a) agriculture, hunting, forestry & fishing;
(b) production - mining & quarrying industries; energy & water supply; and manufacturing, which includes: refined petroleum products & nuclear fuel; chemicals & man-made fibres; metal & metal products; engineering & allied industries; food, drink & tobacco industries; textiles, footwear, leather & clothing; other manufacturing;
(d) services - retail & wholesale; hotels & catering; transport, storage & communication; financial services; real estate & business services; public administration, education & health; other services.
Cash Estimates of GVA
15. Estimates of the cash value of Gross Value Added (GVA) at current prices for Scotland (and other regions of the UK) are produced by the Office for National Statistics. Estimates for 2008 were published on 9th December 2009. The ONS current price value estimates are methodologically different from the Scottish Government volume (constant price) index and are based on different data sources. The Scottish National Accounts Project team (see note 4) are also in the process of developing a number of estimates of cash value GVA and GDP for Scotland.
16. Very few statistical revisions arise as a result of 'errors' in the popular sense of the word. All estimates, by definition, are subject to statistical 'error' but in this context the word refers to the uncertainty inherent in any process or calculation that uses sampling, estimation or modelling. Most revisions reflect either the adoption of new statistical techniques, or the incorporation of new information which allows the statistical error of previous estimates to be reduced. Only rarely are there avoidable 'errors' such as human or system failures, and such mistakes are made quite clear when they do occur.
17. The figures in this Statistics Publication Notice incorporate revisions to previously published estimates and include the effects of recent ONS revisions to UK GVA series and the underlying source data. Tables 8 - 13 identify the extent of revisions since the last publication in January 2010. Revisions are shown to one decimal place for total GVA and GVA excluding oil & gas. Revisions are shown to zero decimal places for all other sectors.
The series most affected by revisions this quarter are:
· Agriculture, forestry and fishing - due to planned updates to annual source data
· Construction - due to revised source data
· Financial services - due to revised source data
· Real estate and business services - due to revised source data
A number of other series are affected by revisions to a lesser extent. These are mainly due to revisions to input data, deflators and seasonal adjustment factors.
18. National Statistics are produced to high professional standards set out in the National Statistics Code of Practice. They undergo regular quality assurance reviews to ensure that they meet customer needs. They are produced free from any political interference.
19. Detailed results for all industries, are available to download from the Scottish Government website www.scotland.gov.uk/gdp.
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Statistician: Richard Morrison 0131-244-3768