GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) FOR SCOTLAND FOR THE 3rd QUARTER OF 2009
For a Portable Document Format (.pdf) version of the results, use the following link:
GDP 2009Q3 PDF
To download the tables in Excel format, use the following link:
GDP 2009Q3 XLS
20 January 2010
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in constant basic prices, also referred to as Gross Value Added (GVA), in Scotland fell by 4.6 per cent over the year to the end of 2009 Q3 and fell by 0.2 per cent in the third quarter of 2009, according to provisional estimates released today by Scotland's Chief Statistician.
GDP Growth Rates 2004-2009 Q3
The main findings of the latest figures are:
· GDP fell by 4.6 per cent annually and fell by 0.2 per cent in the third quarter of 2009 (seasonally adjusted).
· In the year to end-September 2009, the Scottish service sector fell by 3.5 per cent, the production sector fell by 8.4 per cent and the construction sector fell by 8.9 per cent.
· In the third quarter of 2009, the service sector fell by 0.3 per cent, the production sector increased by 0.9 per cent and the construction sector fell by 1.6 per cent.
· The UK figures show that GDP on a comparable basis (constant basic prices) fell by 4.4 per cent in the year to end-September 2009 and fell 0.2 per cent in the third quarter of 2009.
· Over the year, the UK experienced a 3.2 per cent fall in services, a 10.8 per cent fall in production and the construction sector fell by 10.8 per cent.
· In the third quarter of 2009, the UK service sector fell by 0.2 per cent, the production sector declined by 0.9 per cent and the construction sector increased by 1.9 per cent.
· In the third quarter of 2009, service sector output in Scotland fell by 0.3 per cent. Within services, real estate & business services (-1.5%), financial services (-1.3%) and hotels & catering (-2.3%) all declined over the quarter. Retail & wholesale (+1.5%) and transport, storage & communication (+0.5%) grew during the quarter, along with modest growth in the other services sector (+0.1%).
· Output in the production sector increased by 0.9 per cent in the latest quarter. Within production, manufacturing (+0.8%) and electricity, gas & water supply (+3.0%) experienced rises while mining and quarrying (-4.5%) fell. Within manufacturing, food, drink & tobacco (+3.7%), the total other manufacturing sector (+2.2%), metals & metal products (+1.6%) and textiles, footwear, leather & clothing (+1.3%) grew over the period. Chemicals & man-made fibres (-0.3%) and engineering & allied industries (-2.1%) fell during the quarter.
Definitions and Methodology
1. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a measure of the value added to materials and other inputs in the production of goods and services by resident organisations; before allowing for depreciation or capital consumption. Net receipts from interest, profits and dividends abroad are excluded. The estimates produced in this publication measure GDP at basic prices, also referred to as Gross Value Added (GVA).
2. Scottish GVA estimates will generally be less reliable than the equivalent estimates for the UK, primarily because the UK figures are produced by balancing three independent sets of estimates (Output (GVA), Income & Expenditure-based approaches).
3. Furthermore, the survey data for Scotland tend to be based on smaller numbers of units, making figures for Scotland more likely to be susceptible to statistical variance. Statistical variance in estimates is directly proportional to the variability in the underlying population of interest. In the current economic climate, the variability in the economy is increased and users should bare this in mind when interpreting all economic indicators.
4. The Scottish National Accounts Project (SNAP) is exploring the feasibility of producing income and expenditure measures of GDP for Scotland. Further information is available at http://www.scotland.gov.uk/SNAP
5. Annual chainlinking is the technique used to compile the overall measure of GVA growth and also the other, lower-level published aggregates. The resultant indices represent changes in the value added, at constant prices, in the production of goods and services in individual industries. These industries are compiled using the standard industrial classification SIC2003.
6. The Office for National Statistics updated the weights used to compile their aggregate measures, including GVA, in the 2009 Q1 Quarterly National Accounts published on the 30th June 2009. The latest weights used to produce growth rates for Scotland in this publication continue to relate to the year 2004 whilst the weights used in the UK statistics relate to the calendar year 2005.
7. The data used in the production of these quarterly GDP estimates are seasonally adjusted in accordance with the European System of Accounts guidelines and international practice.
8. The X-12-ARIMA technique is used where appropriate to remove regular seasonal peaks and troughs so that the underlying trends and other features of the data are easier to identify. Further information about the seasonal adjustment of the GDP data can be found in section A3 of Scottish Economic Statistics 2006 ( www.scotland.gov.uk/stats/ses).
9. The Scottish GDP indices are under a continuing program of methodological development which is regularly peer reviewed by the Scottish Economic Statistics Consultants Group (SESCG). Information about SESCG, including papers and minutes from recent meetings, is available on the Scottish Government website at http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Economy/ScotStat/comms.
10. In the April publication of GDP for the fourth quarter of 2009, there will be a number of methodological improvements to the series. These include:
· incorporation of updated weights and re-indexation to reflect updated information from forthcoming Scottish Input-Output analysis;
· Improved measures of health service output;
· incorporation of ratio estimates for the Index of Production;
· enhanced measures of financial services activity.
11. Series are derived from indicators based on data from a wide range of sources. Examples include: deflated turnover, deflated production, the volume of a good or service sold or produced and, for some parts of the public sector, employee numbers.
12. The quarterly Scottish GDP estimates are published within 4 months (approximately 16 weeks) of the end of the quarter to which they relate.
13. The indices published within this Statistics Publication Notice are grouped according to the 2003 revised Standard Industrial Classification. The four broad groupings of industries are:
(a) agriculture, hunting, forestry & fishing;
(b) production - mining & quarrying industries; energy & water supply; and manufacturing, which includes: refined petroleum products & nuclear fuel; chemicals & man-made fibres; metal & metal products; engineering & allied industries; food, drink & tobacco industries; textiles, footwear, leather & clothing; other manufacturing;
(d) services - retail & wholesale; hotels & catering; transport, storage & communication; financial services; real estate & business services; public administration, education & health; other services.
Cash Estimates of GVA
14. Estimates of the cash value of Gross Value Added (GVA) at current prices for Scotland (and other regions of the UK) are produced by the Office for National Statistics. Estimates for 2008 were published on 9th December 2009. The ONS current price value estimates are methodologically different from the Scottish Government volume (constant price) index and are based on different data sources.
15. Very few statistical revisions arise as a result of 'errors' in the popular sense of the word. All estimates, by definition, are subject to statistical 'error' but in this context the word refers to the uncertainty inherent in any process or calculation that uses sampling, estimation or modelling. Most revisions reflect either the adoption of new statistical techniques, or the incorporation of new information which allows the statistical error of previous estimates to be reduced. Only rarely are there avoidable 'errors' such as human or system failures, and such mistakes are made quite clear when they do occur.
16. The figures in this Statistics Publication Notice incorporate revisions to previously published estimates and include the effects of recent ONS revisions to UK GVA series and the underlying source data. Tables 8 - 13 identify the extent of revisions since the last publication in October 2009. Revisions are shown to one decimal place for total GVA and GVA excluding oil & gas. Revisions are shown to zero decimal places for all other sectors.
The series most affected by revisions this quarter are:
· Agriculture, forestry and fishing - due to updated annual data;
· Electricity, gas and water supply - due to updated seasonal adjustment factors;
· Construction - due to updated source data.
A number of other series are affected by revisions to a lesser extent. These are mainly due to revisions to input data, deflators and seasonal adjustment factors.
17. National Statistics are produced to high professional standards set out in the National Statistics Code of Practice. They undergo regular quality assurance reviews to ensure that they meet customer needs. They are produced free from any political interference.
18. Detailed results for all industries, are available to download from the Scottish Government website www.scotland.gov.uk/gdp.
Office of the Chief Economic Adviser
St Andrew's House
Edinburgh, EH1 3DG
Press Office: Tim Jays 0131-244-5122
Statistician: Richard Morrison 0131-244-3768