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Assessing the Scale and Impact of Illicit Drug Markets in Scotland

DescriptionThis report provides initial estimates of the size and value of the illicit drugs market, and estimates of the social and economic cost of illicit drug use in Scotland for the year 2006.
ISBN978 0755976720
Official Print Publication DateOctober 2009
Website Publication DateOctober 06, 2009

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Jane Casey and Gordon Hay, Centre for Drug Misuse Research, University of Glasgow
Christine Godfrey and Steve Parrott, Department of Health Sciences, University of York
ISBN 978 0 7559 7672 0 (Web only publication)
This document is also available in pdf format (416k)

CONTENTS

Executive Summary

1 Introduction

2 Previous United Kingdom Studies
2.1 Sizing the market for illicit drugs
2.2 Estimating the economic and social costs of illicit drug use

3 Prevalence of Illicit Drug Use
3.1 Introduction
3.2 Case Definitions
3.3 Data Sources
3.4 Problem Drug Users
3.5 Recreational Drug Use
3.6 Summary
3.7 Discussion

4 Size and Value of Illicit Drug Market
4.1 Introduction
4.2 Method for estimating the size of the illicit drugs market
4.3 Problem Drug Users
4.4 Recreational Drug Users
4.5 Results
4.6 Data recommendations

5 Economic and Social Costs of Illicit Drug Use
5.1 Introduction
5.2 Methods for estimating the cost consequences of illicit drug use
5.3 Primary data sources used in the costs model
5.4 Health care costs
5.5 Criminal Justice costs
5.6 Social Care costs
5.7 Costs to the economy
5.8 Wider costs to society
5.9 Total economic and social costs
5.10 Discussion & recommendations

References

Appendix 1: Monetary expressions of amounts used
Appendix 2: Markets Model Sensitivity Analyses
Appendix 3: Economic and Social Cost Model Sensitivity Analyses
Appendix 4: Typology of costs
Appendix 5: Calculating the rate of uptake of health services related to problem drug use
Appendix 6: Extract from DORIS questionnaire
Appendix 7: Calculating the value of productivity for PDUs who are unemployed

Assessing the scale and impact of illicit drug markets - Excel model

Index of Tables
3.4.1 Estimated number of users (who are categorised as problem drug users, by type of drug) using DORIS
3.4.2 Estimated number of users (who are categorised as problem drug users, by type of drug) using SMR25 data
3.5.1 Estimated number of recreational users (used in last year)
3.6.1 Total Number of Users
4.3.1 Average number of days used in last 90 days by drug type
4.3.2 Average amount used per drug using day (episode) by drug type
4.4.1 Estimated average number of days used per year for specific drugs
4.4.2 Price estimates for specific drugs
4.5.1 Summary of the analyses to estimate the size of the problem drug use drugs market in 2006
4.5.2 Summary of the analyses to estimate the size of the recreational drug use drugs market
4.5.3 Summary of the analyses to estimate the size of the total drug use drugs market
5.4.1 Summary of drug related death costs by type of drug user
5.4.2 Summary of A&E costs
5.4.3 Summary of inpatient costs by type of problem drug user
5.4.4 Summary of outpatient / community treatment costs by type of problem drug user
5.4.5 Summary of GP costs by type of problem drug user
5.4.6 Summary of newborn health costs by type of problem drug user
5.4.7 Summary of costs for HIV and AIDS treatment
5.4.8 The cost of hepatitis C among former and current injecting drug users
5.4.9 Health costs allocated on a top down basis by type of drug user
5.4.10 Total cost to health service (incl top down costs) by type of drug user
5.4.11 Average cost to the health service for problem drug use by treatment status
5.5.1 Rate of crime committed in last year per male PDU
5.5.2 Rate of crime committed in last year per female PDU
5.5.3 Total criminal justice cost of crimes committed in last year by all PDUs
5.5.4 Total estimated cost for drug offences by type of drug user
5.5.5 Total estimated cost of arrest for problem drug users
5.5.6 Criminal justice costs allocated on a top down basis by type of drug user
5.5.7 Total criminal justice cost by type of drug user
5.5.8 Average criminal justice cost per problem drug user by treatment status
5.6.1 Social care costs allocated on a top down basis by type of drug user
5.6.2 Total social care cost by type of drug user
5.7.1 Total cost of absences due to illicit drug use by type of drug user
5.7.2 Estimated proportion of male and female illicit drug users
5.7.3 Cost of lost output due to premature death by type of drug user
5.7.4 Total cost to the economy by type of drug user
5.8.1 Social cost of drug related deaths by type of drug user
5.8.2 Total anticipation of crime costs for crimes committed in the last year by PDUs
5.8.3 Total victim / consequence of crime costs for crimes committed in the last year by PDUs
5.8.4 Anticipation, victim and consequence costs of crime costs per PDU by treatment status
5.8.5 Total wider social costs by type of drug user
5.9.1 Total economic & social costs for costs including all top down costs
5.10.1 Cost per PDU for costs not included in previous Home Office study

Index of Figures
3.4.1 Estimated number of users (who are categorised as problem drug users, by type of drug) using DORIS and SMR25 data
4.5.1 Percentage value of the problem drug use market attributed to specific drugs
4.5.2 Percentage value of the recreational drug use market attributed to specific drugs
4.5.3 Percentage value of the total drugs market attributed to specific drugs
4.5.4 Percentage value of the total drugs market attributed to problem drug users and recreational drug users
5.9.1 Breakdown of total economic & social costs by type of cost
5.9.2 Breakdown of total social & economic costs by type of drug users
5.9.3 Social and economic costs, per drug user, due to problem drug use by treatment status
5.10.1 Estimated levels of crime
5.10.2 Comparison of rates per PDU by source

The views expressed in this report are those of the researcher and
do not necessarily represent those of the Department or Scottish Ministers.

This report is available on the Scottish Government Social Research website only
www.scotland.gov.uk/socialresearch.