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Scottish Energy Study Volume 5: Energy and Carbon Dioxide Projections for Scotland

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5. Energy Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions

The energy consumption values given in Sections 3 and 4 have been converted into CO 2 emissions using the emission factors published in the inventory of greenhouse gases for the UK57. The resulting emission projections for Scotland to 2020, classified in line with the national inventory categories are listed in Table 15. Overall Scottish energy related CO 2 emissions are projected to decline by 9% and 7% between 2005 and 2011 and by 18% and 13% between 2005 and 2020 for the CC and HC scenarios respectively. The corresponding reductions by 2020 relative to the National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory ( NAEI) inventory for 1990 58 are 30% and 18% for the CC and HC scenarios respectively 59. Energy related CO 2 emissions actually exceed Scotland's net carbon emissions when sequestration by land use and forestry is taken into account.

In both the CC and HC scenarios reductions in emissions occur in the domestic, services and energy industries sectors (except for oil refineries), with the greatest reductions projected to be in electricity generation and the domestic sector. Emissions increase in the industry and transport sectors. Despite the greater reduction in emissions from demand sectors in the HC scenario, it is the CC scenario that attains the greatest overall reduction in emissions. This is because under HC more coal fired generation occurs in Scotland because of the more favourable price differential of coal over gas in this scenario. This highlights the strong influence of power generation on overall Scottish CO 2 emissions.

An alternative approach for reporting emissions is to attribute those emissions arising in energy conversion and supply to the final energy consuming sectors. The results of this approach to reporting emissions are shown in Table 16.

Table 16 shows that about 7% of Scottish emissions in 2002 were associated with the export of electricity. By 2020 it is projected that 4% -7% of emissions will continue to be associated with electricity exports, although the absolute quantity is less and the figure is highly sensitive to assumptions regarding power generation in Scotland.

Table 15 Projections of Scottish energy related CO 2 emissions to 2020 disaggregated according to the national inventory classification (Mt CO 2) 60

ScenarioCC

ENERGY

2002

2005

2010

2011

2015

2020

Change 2005-2020 61

1. Energy Industries

22.1

18.7

16.9

16.0

12.5

12.0

-36%

A Electricity

17.2

14.3

12.4

11.5

8.1

7.9

-45%

B Refineries

2.8

2.4

2.8

2.9

2.9

3.0

+24%

C Other energy industry

2.1

2.0

1.7

1.6

1.4

1.1

-45%

2. Manufacturing

5.2

4.6

4.7

4.7

4.9

5.2

+14%

A Iron and Steel

0.02

0.03

0.03

0.03

0.03

0.03

-3%

B Other industries

5.1

4.6

4.7

4.7

4.9

5.2

+14%

3. Transport

11.5

11.9

12.0

12.2

13.1

13.2

+12%

A Road

8.7

8.7

8.8

9.0

9.5

9.3

+8%

B Rail

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

+1%

C Marine

0.6

0.7

0.6

0.6

0.7

0.7

+2%

D Aviation

2.1

2.5

2.4

2.5

2.8

3.2

+28%

4. Other Sectors

11.5

11.1

9.4

9.2

8.5

7.5

-33%

A Commercial/Institutional

2.6

2.7

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.3

-15%

B Domestic

8.7

8.1

6.7

6.6

5.9

4.9

-40%

C Agriculture

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

+6%

Total

50.3

46.3

43.0

42.2

38.9

38.0

-18%

ScenarioHC

ENERGY

2002

2005

2010

2011

2015

2020

Change 2005-2020

1. Energy Industries

22.1

18.7

17.9

17.2

14.5

15.3

-18%

A Electricity

17.2

14.3

13.4

12.8

10.2

11.2

-22%

B Refineries

2.8

2.4

2.8

2.9

2.9

3.0

+24%

C Other energy industry

2.1

2.0

1.7

1.6

1.4

1.1

-45%

2. Manufacturing

5.2

4.6

4.6

4.6

4.8

5.1

+10%

A Iron and Steel

0.02

0.03

0.03

0.03

0.03

0.03

-3%

B Other industries

5.1

4.6

4.6

4.6

4.7

5.0

+10%

3. Transport

11.5

11.9

11.9

12.0

12.7

12.8

+8%

A Road

8.7

8.7

8.8

8.9

9.3

9.1

+5%

B Rail

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

+1%

C Marine

0.6

0.7

0.6

0.6

0.7

0.7

+2%

D Aviation

2.1

2.5

2.4

2.4

2.7

2.9

+18%

4. Other Sectors

11.5

11.1

9.3

9.1

8.2

7.1

-36%

A Commercial/Institutional

2.6

2.7

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.4

-14%

B Domestic

8.7

8.1

6.6

6.4

5.6

4.6

-44%

C Agriculture

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

+6%

Total

50.3

46.3

43.7

43.0

40.2

40.2

-13%

For completeness Table 15 contains estimates for CO 2 emissions from "other energy industries". This sector comprises the manufacture of solid fuels as well as collieries and on-shore oil and gas treatment and transmission facilities. The Scottish Energy Study - Volume 1 does not give a figure for the energy used in these activities, but the NAEI attributes 2.1 MtCO 2 of emissions to this sector in 2002. These emissions are attributed to the industry sector in Table 16. Future fuel consumption and emissions from these sectors will be determined largely by the level of production from North Sea oil and gas fields. For the purpose of this assessment it has been assumed that energy consumption, and hence CO 2 emissions, fall with declining North Sea production, which is expected to roughly half by 2020 62.

Table 16 Projections of Scottish energy related CO 2 emissions to 2020 disaggregated by end use sector (Mt CO 2)

CC Scenario

2002

2005

2010

2011

2015

2020

Change 63 2005-2020

Domestic

13.7

12.3

10.2

9.8

8.1

7.0

-43%

Industry

11.6

10.4

9.7

9.5

8.5

8.7

-16%

Services and agriculture

7.4

6.9

5.9

5.6

4.6

4.6

-33%

Transport-Road

9.7

9.5

9.9

10.0

10.6

10.5

+10%

Transport Other

3.2

3.6

3.6

3.7

4.0

4.4

+23%

Net Total

45.6

42.8

39.2

38.5

35.9

35.2

-18%

Export

Electricity

3.6

2.5

2.6

2.5

1.9

1.6

-36%

Refineries

1.1

1.0

1.2

1.2

1.1

1.1

+17%

Gross Total

50.3

46.3

43.0

42.2

38.9

38.0

-18%

ScenarioHC

2002

2005

2010

2011

2015

2020

Change 2005-2020

Domestic

13.7

12.3

10.2

9.8

8.2

7.3

-41%

Industry

11.6

10.4

9.9

9.7

8.8

9.4

-10%

Services and agriculture

7.4

6.9

6.1

5.9

5.0

5.2

-25%

Transport-Road

9.7

9.5

9.8

9.9

10.4

10.2

+7%

Transport Other

3.2

3.6

3.5

3.6

3.9

4.2

+16%

Net Total

45.6

42.8

39.4

38.8

36.3

36.2

-15%

Export

Electricity

3.6

2.5

3.1

3.0

2.7

2.8

-11%

Refineries

1.1

1.0

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

+23%

Gross Total

50.3

46.3

43.7

43.0

40.2

40.2

-13%

Note rounding to one decimal place may introduce some small errors in summations.