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Scottish Energy Study Volume 5: Energy and Carbon Dioxide Projections for Scotland

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3. Energy Demand to 2020

The baseline projections for the four demand sectors are presented, starting with the largest demand sector in 2002, the domestic sector.

3.1. Energy Demand in the Domestic Sector

Energy is used in households for space heating in winter and for water heating and cooking throughout the year. Additionally electricity is used throughout the year to run a broad range of appliances and entertainment equipment, to provide lighting and for heating and hot water (particularly where there is limited access to other forms of fuel). Demand for all of these uses is dependent on the total number of households, the level of disposable income and the price of energy supplies. Demand for energy for space heating is also affected by the condition of the housing stock, the efficiency of heating appliances and the level of comfort demanded by residents ( i.e. thermostat settings and number of rooms heated).

The Scottish Energy Study - Volume 1 provides estimates of domestic sector energy consumption divided by fuel type in 2002 that take account of the above factors. For example adjustments were made for the energy rating of Scottish homes, the mix of dwellings, Scotland's climate and the availability of gas. In developing projections to 2020 these reference values were firstly escalated in line with the UK projections using the general relationship given in Section 2. This approach captures current differences between Scotland and the UK average, but implicitly assumes that trends in Scotland will parallel the UK. Examples include trends in the number of households, disposable income, energy prices, improvement in the condition of the housing stock, switching between fuels, the level of heating demanded by residents and the effectiveness of UK wide policy measures. In most respects this is a reasonable set of assumptions with the exception that Scotland's population is projected to grow more slowly than for the UK overall (Table 1), which infers that the number of households will also increase more slowly than for the UK. Therefore the projections were adjusted to take account of this lower population trend.

Energy demand projections for the domestic sector are listed in Table 3 for the CC and HC scenarios. Overall Scottish domestic consumption is projected to fall by between 32% -35% between 2005 and 2020. By comparison BERR's projections anticipate UK domestic consumption falling by 29%-33%. This difference is linked to the slower population growth assumed for Scotland, that results in the growth in the number of households being less in Scotland than for the UK overall. The fall in demand occurs for all fuels, including gas and electricity, although the fall in electricity demand is less than for other energy sources (Figure 2). The fall in demand for gas, ranging from 38% to 43% is particularly notable since up to 2005 it was on a rising trend. However, this is in line with the projections for the UK that anticipate gas demand falling by between 35%-40%. As would be expected the fall is greatest in the higher energy price HC scenario.

The projected fall in energy demand is due to the impact of a range of existing measures to improve household energy efficiency, including more efficient boilers and tighter building standards, and new measures proposed in the Energy White Paper ( EWP). The latter include (in order of impact) an obligation on energy suppliers to reduce household carbon emissions, improved building standards (including the zero carbon homes initiative), more energy efficient products and improved information to householders on energy use through better billing and real time displays.

Of course there is significant uncertainty over the projected impact of policy measures, which BERR acknowledges by presenting a range of potential impacts for the EWP measures. The projections used herein are based on BERR's central estimate. BERR's lower estimate for the impact has domestic energy demand 5% above the central value while its higher estimate gives an energy demand 5% below the central value.

Table 3 Projected Scottish domestic energy demand to 2020 ( TWh) 32

CC Scenario

2002

2005

2010

2015

2020

Change 2005-2020

Electricity

12.2

12.4

11.8

11.8

11.3

-9%

Gas

34.4

35.3

29.3

26.2

21.9

-38%

Oil

5.8

4.9

4.2

3.5

2.9

-41%

Coal

3.0

1.1

0.8

0.6

0.4

-63%

Renewable Energy

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0%

Total

56.0

54.2

46.6

42.5

37.0

-32%

ScenarioHC

2002

2005

2010

2015

2020

Change 2005-2020

Electricity

12.2

12.4

11.7

11.6

11.2

-9%

Gas

34.4

35.3

28.4

24.4

20.0

-43%

Oil

5.8

4.9

4.2

3.5

2.9

-41%

Coal

3.0

1.1

0.8

0.6

0.4

-63%

Renewable Energy

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0%

Total

56.0

54.2

45.6

40.6

35.0

-35%

Note rounding to one decimal place may introduce some small errors in summations.

Figure 2 Projected Scottish domestic energy demand to 2020 for the CC scenario ( TWh)

Figure 2 Projected Scottish domestic energy demand to 2020 for the CC scenario (TWh)

Renewable energy use in these projections refers mainly to the use of wood, passive solar, ground source heat, etc. for space and water heating. Electricity generated from renewable energy sources and supplied through the public transmission and distribution system is included in the electricity values, and will be discussed further in Section 4 which covers energy supply. The provision of heat from renewable energy sources stays flat over the period in line with the projections for the UK. However, it should be noted that BERR's projections neglected potential measures that may be introduced to meet possible targets under the EU's proposed directive for the use of energy from renewable sources, that envisages the EU deriving 20% of its energy from RE by 2020 33, with the UK likely to take a 15% target as part of the burden sharing arrangement ( NB. the Scottish Government has stated in principle its willingness to make a contribution to the UK target in excess of its population share). The impact of this latter target is examined later in the sensitivity analyses reported in Section 6.

3.2. Energy Demand in Transport

Transport energy use includes fuel for road vehicles, trains, aircraft and shipping. Fuel consumption by road vehicles dominates transport energy use, and can be divided into consumption by private vehicles (mainly cars but also including motor cycles), goods transport and public transport.

Demand for fuel for personal transport is determined by the number of cars in use, their annual mileage and their fuel efficiency. The number of cars in use depends on the population and the level of car ownership ( i.e. number of cars per head of population). Car ownership in Scotland in 2005 at about 0.42 cars per capita 34 is only 90% of the UK average 35, although the average annual mileage is estimated to be about 4% higher 35,36. The annual mileage of cars is linked to the cost of fuel, household disposable income and the degree of road congestion. Demand for fuel for goods vehicles is linked to the level of economic activity as well as to the cost of fuel.

The Scottish Energy Study - Volume 1 provides estimates for fuel use in road transport in 2002 broken down into petrol cars, motor cycles, diesel cars, light good vehicles, heavy goods vehicles and buses/coaches. BERR's energy projections for the UK provide separate projections for the consumption of diesel and petrol by cars and goods vehicles. Projections of Scottish road fuel use to 2020 were made as follows:

  • Petrol consumption and diesel consumption in cars were escalated in line with the UK projections for petrol and diesel consumption in cars, and adjusted for the different rate of population growth assumed for Scotland compared to the UK average.
  • Diesel consumption in goods vehicles was escalated in line with the UK projections for diesel consumption in goods and public service vehicles and adjusted for the higher rate of GDP growth assumed for Scotland.
  • Diesel consumption by buses and coaches was escalated in line with the UK projections for diesel consumption in goods and public service vehicles and adjusted for the different rate of population growth assumed for Scotland.

By following this approach it was implicitly assumed that Scotland's car ownership and utilisation, and the average fuel efficiency of the car stock would change in line with the UK overall, but that the differences in the absolute levels of car ownership and utilisation would persist. Similarly it was assumed that goods vehicle utilisation and fuel efficiency would parallel the trend projected for the UK. Because car ownership is less than the UK average there is clearly a case for considering a faster growth in transport fuel consumption in Scotland. This has been examined in the sensitivity analysis reported in Section 6. The BERR projections incorporate the Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation and also the potential impact of a successor to the EU voluntary agreement on new car fuel efficiency.

Projections for fuel use in Scottish road transport are listed in Table 4. Total demand increases by 13% and 10% between 2005 and 2020 in the CC and HC scenarios respectively. Within this overall total, demand for petroleum based fuels increases by a lower 6% in the CC scenario and by 4% in the HC scenario, as some of these are replaced by biofuels. The corresponding trends for total road transport fuel demand (including biofuels) across the UK were +6% in CC and +3% in HC.

The main reason for the greater increase in demand in Scotland is because of the adjustment for Scotland's increasing share of the UK's GDP affecting the demand for goods transport. With this adjustment, consumption of petroleum fuel by goods vehicles is projected to increase by about 3%-6% between 2005 and 2020, whereas total UK consumption is roughly level in both scenarios.

Figure 3 shows the distribution of demand for petroleum products in road transport for the CC scenario, which also suggests that the demand from car travel may have peaked or at the least have levelled off by 2020. The HC results show a similar trend (Table 4) which suggests that this is not simply a price effect, but also reflects the impact of policy measures to reduce carbon emissions from road transport, the main one being an extension of the EU voluntary agreement on new car fuel efficiency.

Table 4 Projected Scottish energy demands for road transport ( TWh)

CC Scenario

2002

2005

2010

2015

2020

Change 2005-2020 37

Private

23.6

22.7

23.9

26.1

24.7

+9%

Goods

10.5

11.0

10.6

10.9

11.6

+6%

Public

1.5

1.6

1.5

1.5

1.5

-4%

Biofuels

0.0

0.0

1.8

1.9

1.9

-

Total

35.5

35.3

37.8

40.4

39.7

+13%

Total Petrol

17.7

15.2

14.2

12.0

11.2

-26%

Total Derv

17.9

20.1

21.8

26.5

26.6

+32%

Total Biofuels

0.0

0.0

1.8

1.9

1.9

-

Total

35.5

35.3

37.8

40.4

39.7

+13%

ScenarioHC

2002

2005

2010

2015

2020

Change 2005-2020

Private

23.6

22.7

23.7

25.6

24.1

+6%

Goods

10.5

11.0

10.5

10.7

11.3

+3%

Public

1.5

1.6

1.5

1.5

1.5

-5%

Biofuels

0.0

0.0

1.8

1.9

1.8

-

Total

35.5

35.3

37.5

39.7

38.7

+10%

Total Petrol

17.7

15.2

14.1

11.7

10.9

-28%

Total Derv

17.9

20.1

21.6

26.0

26.0

+29%

Total Biofuels

0.0

0.0

1.8

1.9

1.8

-

Total

35.5

35.3

37.5

39.7

38.7

+10%

Note rounding to one decimal place may introduce some small errors in summations.

BERR's projections assumed that the UK would meet its target to derive 5% of road transport fuels from biomass resources by 2010, and this is reflected in the projections for Scotland, where biomass based fuel accounts for ~5% of total petrol and diesel consumption from 2010 to 2020.

Figure 3 Projected Scottish energy demands for petroleum products in road transport - CC scenario ( TWh)

Figure 3 Projected Scottish energy demands for petroleum products in road transport - CC scenario (TWh)

In addition to road transport, energy is used to power rail, air and marine transport. The Scottish Energy Study - Volume 1 gave estimates for the use of diesel and electricity for rail transport, kerosene for aviation and fuel oil for marine transport in 2002. These values were escalated to 2020 in line with the corresponding projections for the UK. No additional adjustments were made to take account of Scottish GDP or population variations since, to some extent, these areas are more influenced by the overall UK economy. Aviation dominates these energy uses (Figure 4) and, in line with the UK, shows substantial growth to 2020. However, Scottish aviation only accounts for a little over 6% of total UK aviation energy consumption.

Overall Scottish energy consumption for transport increases by 11% and 15% for the HC and CC scenarios compared to 7% and 11% for the UK. The higher growth in overall transport energy demand compared to road transport is due to a strong increase in demand for air travel.

Table 5 Projected total Scottish energy demands for all transport applications ( TWh)

CC scenario

2002

2005

2010

2015

2020

Change 38 2005-2020

Motor Spirit

35.5

35.3

36.0

38.5

37.8

+7%

Aviation

8.5

10.1

9.9

11.5

12.9

+28%

Marine

2.4

2.6

2.4

2.6

2.6

+2%

Rail

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

-

Electricity

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

-

Biofuels

0.0

0.0

1.8

1.9

1.9

-

Total

47.1

48.6

50.7

55.2

55.9

+15%

scenarioHC

Transport

2002

2005

2010

2015

2020

Change 2005-2020

Motor Spirit

35.5

35.3

35.7

37.8

36.9

+5%

Aviation

8.5

10.1

9.7

10.9

11.9

+18%

Marine

2.4

2.6

2.4

2.6

2.6

+2%

Rail

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

-

Electricity

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

-

Biofuels

0.0

0.0

1.8

1.9

1.8

-

Total

47.1

48.6

50.3

53.8

54.0

+11%

Note rounding to one decimal place may introduce some small errors in summations.

Figure 4 Projected Scottish energy demands for non-road transport - CC scenario ( TWh)

Figure 4 Projected Scottish energy demands for non-road transport - CC scenario (TWh)

3.3. Energy Demand in Industry

The industry sector consists of a broad range of processes and activities that differ considerably in the mix of energy sources used and their prospects for future growth. Moreover Scotland's mix of industries differs significantly compared to the UK average. For example the Food & Drink, Paper and Engineering sectors have a significant share of Scotland's industrial economy, whereas iron & steel has a minor share. To accommodate these considerations the projections for industrial energy consumption have been developed at a sub-sector level.

BERR considers industrial energy consumption disaggregated into 9 sub-sectors broadly based on the Standard Industrial Classification ( SIC) two digit code as listed in Table 6. Scottish projections for industrial energy consumption were made by grouping the reference data given for 2002 in the Scottish Energy Study - Volume 1 into the same sub-sectors, and then escalating these values in line with the UK projections. These initial values were then adjusted to take account of the higher GDP growth assumed for Scotland.

By following this methodology it has been implicitly assumed that each sector in Scotland will follow the UK trend for fuel switching and that energy efficiency improvements will be in line with the UK average. This recognises that many of the main drivers ( e.g. energy prices, energy regulation, market conditions, etc) are the same across the UK.

Table 6 Summary of industrial sub-sectors used for the projections

Industrial Subsector

SIC (03) Classification includes

Includes

Food, Drink and Tobacco

15, 16

Food, Beverages, Tobacco Products

Textiles, Leather and Clothing

17-19

Textiles, Clothing, Footwear products, Leather goods

Paper, Printing and Publishing

21, 22

Pulp, Paper and paperboard products, Printing and publishing

Chemicals

24

Industrial Gases and chemicals, Pharmaceuticals, Agrichemicals, paints and Varnishes, Toiletries

Non-Ferrous Metals

27.4, 27.53, 27.54

Non-ferrous metal production, Castings

Engineering and Vehicles

30-35

Metal products, Electrical and optical equipment, Transport equipment, Other Machinery and Equipment

Mineral Products

14, 26

Mining and quarrying of non-energy producing materials, Glass products, Ceramic goods, Other non-metal products

Iron and Steel

27, excluding 27.4, 27.53, 27.54

Iron and Steel Production, Casting, Blast Furnaces

Construction and Other Industries

13, 20, 25, 36, 37, 41, 45

Construction, Wood and wood products, Rubber and Plastic Products, Water supply, Sports goods and toys, Jewellery

Between 2005 and 2020 overall Scottish industrial energy consumption is projected to increase by about 14% -15% (Table 7) while UK industrial consumption 39 is projected to increase by between 11% and 13%. This difference partly reflects the higher GDP growth assumed for Scotland compared to the UK over this period. This results in Scotland's share of UKGDP increasing from 7.9% in 2005 to 8.2% in 2020 (Table 1). This increase in industrial energy consumption would have been greater, but is partly off-set because, across the UK, some industry sectors are expected to grow more slowly (or even decline) compared to others, and Scotland's industrial energy consumption is greatest in some of these lower growth sectors (see Table 8). Additionally BERR's projections anticipate significant improvements in energy efficiency, driven by a range of measures including the Climate Change Levy and voluntary agreements plus the impact of the EUETS on energy intensive manufacturing, and this is carried through into the projections for Scotland.

The higher fuel prices of the HC scenario have relatively little impact on overall industrial demand but do cause some fuel switching. Demand for oil falls and the growth in demand for gas is lower in the HC scenario compared to the CC scenario but this is partly balanced by an increase in demand for electricity.

Table 7 Projected Scottish energy demands from industry ( TWh)40

ScenarioCC

2002

2005

2010

2015

2020

Change 2005-2020 41

Electricity

10.5

11.3

11.4

11.4

12.6

+12%

Gas

17.9

16.6

17.4

19.2

21.0

+26%

Oil

5.6

3.9

3.7

3.7

3.7

-5%

Coal

1.1

1.5

1.5

1.3

1.2

-25%

Renewable Energy

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

0%

Total

36.3

34.5

35.1

36.8

39.6

+15%

ScenarioHC

2002

2005

2010

2015

2020

Change 2005-2020

Electricity

10.5

11.3

11.7

11.8

13.2

+17%

Gas

17.9

16.6

17.1

18.5

20.2

+22%

Oil

5.6

3.9

3.6

3.5

3.6

-10%

Coal

1.1

1.5

1.4

1.3

1.2

-24%

Renewable Energy

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

0%

Total

36.3

34.5

35.0

36.3

39.3

+14%

Note rounding to one decimal place may introduce some small errors in summations.

Table 8 Comparison of Scotland's share of UK industrial sector energy consumption and projected sectoral economic growth to 2020

Scotland's share of UK energy consumption in 2002 (%) 42

UK sector GDP growth between 2005-2020 assumed in BERR's projections (%)

Food, Drink and Tobacco

15.8

9.6

Textiles, leather and clothing

12.3

-31.0

Paper, Printing and Publishing

18.5

11.8

Chemicals

6.9

57.5

Non-ferrous metals

9.9

44.1

Engineering

13.5

30.2

Mineral products

6.5

20.4

Construction and other industries

3.6

24.8

Table 7 also shows some general changes to the mix of energy sources used by industry in the CC and HC scenarios. Both scenarios show increases in consumption of gas, and to a lesser extent electricity, while oil and coal continues to decline. The values for electricity do not include autogeneration, but following the convention established in the Scottish Energy Study Volume 1, do include the primary fuels used in autogeneration ( i.e. for CHP and self generation). Some sales of power are expected from the industry sector and these are examined in Section 4.

The Scottish Energy Study - Volume 1 provided an estimate for the use of renewable energy (other than electricity) within Scottish industry. BERR's projection has the industrial use of renewable sources staying flat over the projection period, and to be consistent with the UK projection the estimate for Scotland has also been held constant to 2020. However, as noted previously, BERR projections did not include potential measures that may be introduced to meet possible targets under the EU's proposed directive for the use of energy from renewable sources. This is considered further in the sensitivity analyses reported in Section 6.

Figure 5 Projected Scottish energy demand from the industry sectors in the CC scenario ( TWh)

Figure 5 Projected Scottish energy demand from the industry sectors in the CC scenario (TWh)

3.4. Energy Demand in Services and Agriculture

Energy demand in the services sector is principally for space and water heating, cooking, air conditioning, lighting and the operation of a broad range of appliances, including information technology. Demand is driven by the level of economic activity in the sector, which determines the number and size of buildings being used and the number of employees. Agriculture includes farming, fisheries and forestry and involves the use of petroleum products to power machinery as well as energy use in buildings.

The services sector is made up of commercial services and public services and there is a significant difference in the energy mix used by these sub-sectors. For example about 60% of the energy used in commercial services is electricity, but electricity is only about 25% of energy used in the public services. Moreover, the balance of services is different in Scotland compared to the UK overall. Thus in GDP terms in 2005 Scotland had about 9.8% of UK public services but only 6.9% of UK commercial services. It is important to take account of these differences when making projections for this sector.

BERR produced separate projections for the UK public services, commercial services and agriculture, and these results were used to make separate sub-sector projections for Scotland. This involved the following steps:

  • The Scottish Energy Study - Volume 1 data for service sector energy consumption in 2002 was divided into commercial and public services in line with the UK split, and then adjusted to take account of the larger proportion of public services in Scotland.
  • Scottish commercial and public services energy use was escalated in line with the UK projections.
  • The Scottish projections were adjusted to take account of the increasing rate of total GDP growth assumed for Scotland to 2020 (Table 1).
  • Scottish agriculture energy use was escalated in line with the UK projections.

By following this approach it was implicitly assumed that Scottish energy intensity would improve in line with the UK average, and that UK policy measures would be equally effective in Scotland. Also the approach assumes that the current balance of commercial to public services will be maintained to 2020.

Table 9 Projected Scottish services sector energy demand divided by sub-sector for the CC scenario ( TWh)

2002

2005

2010

2015

2020

Public Services

Electricity

3.1

3.3

2.8

2.7

2.6

Gas

5.2

6.1

5.8

5.6

5.6

Oil

1.6

1.1

0.9

0.8

0.7

Coal

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Renewable Energy

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.3

0.3

Total

10.2

10.7

9.7

9.3

9.2

Commercial Services

Electricity

7.2

7.4

7.3

7.3

7.3

Gas

5.3

5.2

5.4

5.1

5.1

Oil

0.9

1.5

0.8

0.8

0.7

Coal

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Renewable Energy

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Total

13.4

14.1

13.6

13.2

13.2

Agriculture

Electricity

0.9

0.9

1.0

1.0

1.0

Gas

0.9

0.8

0.6

0.7

0.7

Oil

0.3

0.2

0.3

0.3

0.3

Coal

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.1

Renewable Energy

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

Total

2.2

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.1

Note rounding to one decimal place may introduce some small errors in summations.

Projections for each of the sub-sectors are set out in Table 9 and the aggregate result is given in Table 10 and Figure 6. Scottish energy demand in this group of sectors is projected to decline by 9% between 2005 and 2020 compared to a fall of 11% for the UK overall. The slower decline in energy consumption in Scotland is due to the assumption presented in Table 1 that Scotland will achieve higher economic growth than the UK average up to 2020.

The overall pattern of falling energy demand, both in Scotland and the UK, despite projected substantial growth in the commercial sector, is linked to the expectation that the historic trend for improvements to the energy intensity in these sectors is continued into the future. In fact this trend is expected to be accelerated by measures introduced by the UK Climate Change Programme 2002 ( i.e. building regulations, climate change agreements) and new measures proposed in the Energy White Paper 2007 ( i.e. smart metering, energy performance of buildings, carbon reduction commitment).

The modest growth in renewable energy reflects the overall trend expected for the UK, but alternative assumptions specific to Scotland for biomass heat are examined in Section 6.

The fuel price differences between the CC and HC scenarios had no affect on the overall level of energy demand or the balance between the mix of fuels used. This is consistent with BERR's projections for the UK under these scenarios.

Table 10 Projected Scottish energy demands from the services and agriculture sectors ( TWh)43( CC & HC Scenario yielded the same results)

2002

2005

2010

2015

2020

Change 2005-2020 44

Electricity

11.3

11.6

11.1

10.9

10.9

-6%

Gas

11.4

12.2

11.8

11.4

11.4

-6%

Oil

2.8

2.8

2.0

1.8

1.7

-39%

Coal

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.1

+350%

RE

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.4

0.4

+42%

Total

25.8

26.8

25.3

24.6

24.5

-9%

Note rounding to one decimal place may introduce some small errors in summations.

Figure 6 Projected Scottish energy demands from the services and agriculture sectors in the CC scenario ( TWh)

Figure 6 Projected Scottish energy demands from the services and agriculture sectors in the CC scenario (TWh)

3.5. Summary of Scottish Final Energy Demand

Table 11 and Figure 7 show projections of overall final energy demand divided by sector. In the CC scenario overall demand falls by 4% between 2005 and 2020, while in the HC scenario the fall is 7%. These trends compare to falls of 3% and 6% for the UK overall in the CC and HC scenarios respectively. The principal factor driving this reduction in demand both in Scotland and the UK overall is the impact of policy measures proposed in the UKEWP. For example BERR's central projections estimate that the UK's total final energy demand will be 9% less with the EWP measures than it otherwise would have been.

The main drivers that differ between Scotland compared to the UK overall are economic growth (assumed to be higher than long-term trend in Scotland), population growth (lower in Scotland), the different mix of industries in Scottish manufacturing and the different balance between public and commercial activity in the services sector. Overall these factors appear to largely cancel out although there are some significant trends within individual sectors:

  • Energy demand in the domestic sector is projected to fall by 32%-35% by 2020 ( UK 28% -32%). This is driven by a range of existing measures to improve household energy efficiency, including more efficient boilers and tighter building standards, and new measures proposed in the EWP. The latter include in order of estimated impact an obligation on energy suppliers to reduce household carbon emissions, improved building standards (including the zero carbon homes initiative), more energy efficient products and improved information to householders on energy use through better billing and real time displays.
  • Energy demand in services is projected to fall by 9% ( UK 10%). The difference in fuel prices between the CC and HC scenarios had no effect on demand in these comparatively low energy intensity sectors. The fall in demand is mainly driven by measures to increase energy efficiency introduced by the UK Climate Change Programme 2002 ( i.e. building regulations, climate change agreements) and new measures proposed in the Energy White Paper 2007 ( i.e. carbon reduction commitment, smart metering, energy performance of buildings). This fall may seem modest but it represents a substantial improvement in energy intensity since Scotland's GDP is assumed to increase by 58% between 2005 and 2020, and a substantial part of this growth will be in services.
  • These falls are partially offset by a 14%-15% increase in consumption by industry ( UK +13%). As for services this represents a significant increase in energy intensity given the significant economic expansion assumed between 2005 and 2020.
  • Energy demand for transport is also projected to increase by 11% in the HC scenario and 15% in the CC scenario ( UK +7 % to +11%). The higher growth in Scotland is driven mainly by faster economic growth that results in higher fuel consumption for goods transportation, with car fuel consumption levelling off and aviation expansion matching the UK average.

Table 11 Scottish Final Energy consumption divided by demand sector ( TWh)

ScenarioCC

2002

2005

2010

2015

2020

Change 2005 - 2020 45

Domestic

56.0

54.2

46.6

42.5

37.0

-32%

Services

25.8

26.8

25.3

24.6

24.5

-9%

Industry

36.3

34.5

35.1

36.8

39.6

+15%

Transport

47.1

48.6

50.7

55.2

55.9

+15%

Total

165.0

164.2

157.8

159.0

156.9

-4%

ScenarioHC

2002

2005

2010

2015

2020

Change 2005 - 2020

Domestic

56.0

54.2

45.6

40.6

35.0

-35%

Services

25.8

26.8

25.3

24.6

24.5

-9%

Industry

36.3

34.5

35.0

36.3

39.3

+14%

Transport

47.1

48.6

50.3

53.8

54.0

+11%

Total

165.0

164.2

156.2

155.3

152.7

-7%

Note rounding to one decimal place may introduce some small errors in summations.

Figure 7 Scottish final energy demand by sector 2002 to 2020 for the CC scenario ( TWh)

Figure 7 Scottish final energy demand by sector 2002 to 2020 for the CC scenario (TWh)

Table 12 and Figure 8 show the overall demand projections divided by fuel type. Demand for all energy sources is projected to decline with the exception of direct use of renewable energy which increases by over 100% 46 albeit from an initial low base. The main reductions in demand affect natural gas, down by 15% to 19% ( UK 14% to 19%) and coal down by 37% to 38%. Oil demand is steady in the HC scenario but increases by 3% in the CC scenario due to increased demand for transport ( UK -1% to -3%). Electricity demand decreases slightly (-1%) in the CC scenario but is level in the HC scenario ( UK -1% to +1%).

Table 12 Scottish Final Energy consumption divided by energy source ( TWh)

CC Scenario

2002

2005

2010

2015

2020

Change 2005 - 2020 47

Electricity

34.3

35.5

34.6

34.4

35.1

-1%

Gas

63.7

64.1

58.5

56.8

54.3

-15%

Oil

61.0

59.9

58.6

61.9

62.0

+3%

Coal

4.2

2.7

2.4

1.9

1.7

-38%

RE

1.9

1.9

3.7

3.9

3.9

+103%

Total

165.0

164.2

157.8

159.0

156.9

-4%

ScenarioHC

2002

2005

2010

2015

2020

Change 2005 - 2020

Electricity

34.3

35.5

34.8

34.7

35.6

0%

Gas

63.7

64.1

57.4

54.4

51.6

-19%

Oil

61.0

59.9

58.0

60.5

59.9

0%

Coal

4.2

2.7

2.3

1.9

1.7

-37%

RE

1.9

1.9

3.7

3.9

3.9

+101%

Total

165.0

164.2

156.2

155.3

152.7

-7%

Note rounding to one decimal place may introduce some small errors in summations.

Figure 8 Scottish final energy demand by fuel type in the CC scenario ( TWh)

Figure 8 Scottish final energy demand by fuel type in the CC scenario (TWh)