We have a new website go to gov.scot

Scottish Energy Study Volume 5: Energy and Carbon Dioxide Projections for Scotland

Listen

1. Introduction

The Scottish Energy Study is the first major study of energy supply and demand to be conducted in Scotland for over a decade. The aim in producing this study is to provide the Scottish Government and other stakeholders with a coherent picture of the energy flows into and out of Scotland, including details of energy supply and consumption across the four main energy demand sectors, namely domestic, transport, industry and services.

Volume 5 of the study examines the prospects for future energy supply and demand in Scotland, and the implications of these trends for energy related CO 2 emissions up to 2020. Because Scotland's energy economy is strongly linked to and influenced by that of the UK overall, these projections for Scotland have been developed from projections for the UK made by the Department for Business Enterprise and Regulatory Reform ( BERR) 20. The approach used to do this is described in Section 2.

Projecting future trends in any area of a modern economy is fraught with uncertainty, and energy is no exception due to the many differing factors impacting on the patterns of supply and demand. In particular trends in economic growth, primary energy prices and government policies ( e.g. aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions or increasing security of supply) can have a major impact on both demand and the mix of energy sources used to meet that demand. The study has addressed these uncertainties in three ways.

Firstly it has examined two scenarios taken from the BERR projections for the UK that consider the impact of different fossil fuel price trajectories, namely:

Central - Central ( CC) - in which primary energy prices are assumed to follow a 'central' trajectory and the energy policies set out in the UK Energy White Paper 2007 ( EWP) are assumed to have an impact in the centre of their potential range.

High - Central ( HC) - in which primary energy prices are assumed to follow a 'high' trajectory and the energy policies set out in the UKEWP are assumed to have an impact in the centre of their potential range.

Secondly the study has adjusted the projections to take account of key factors specific to Scotland, in particular the Scottish Government's targets for economic and population growth, and the expansion of renewable energy production, that diverge from the overall UK trend used by BERR.

Thirdly the study includes a set of sensitivity analyses, which examine how changes to assumptions impact on Scottish energy demand and supply.

Volume 5 is divided into five main sections in addition to this introduction:

Section 2 - Methodology and assumptions

Section 3 - Quantitative projections of energy demand to 2020.

Section 4 - Quantitative projections of energy supply to 2020.

Section 5 - Projections of CO 2 emissions to 2020.

Section 6 - Sensitivity analysis of how the energy and CO 2 projections are affected by variations specific to Scotland.

This work builds upon the quantitative and qualitative information on energy supply and demand, and related CO 2 emissions, provided in Volumes 1 to 4 of the Scottish Energy Study. The following figure illustrates how the projections and scenarios in Volume 5 fit with the other Energy Study Volumes.

Figure 1 Relationship between Volume 5 and Energy Study Volumes 1-4

Figure 1 Relationship between Volume 5 and Energy Study Volumes 1-4