24 January 2007
A Scottish Executive National Statistics Publication
NEXT PUBLISHED (Provisionally): 25th April 2007
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GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT FOR SCOTLAND FOR THE 3rd QUARTER OF 2006
Gross Domestic Product in Scotland rose by 2.3 per cent over the year to the end of 2006 Q3 and grew by 0.5 per cent during the third quarter of 2006 according to provisional estimates released today by the Scottish Executive.
The main findings of the latest figures are:
- GDP rose by 2.3 per cent over the year to the end of 2006 Q3 and grew by 0.5 per cent over the third quarter of 2006 (seasonally adjusted).
- Over the year to the end of 2006 Q3, annual output in the Scottish service sector grew by 2.8 per cent, compared with a 0.5 per cent decrease in the production sector and a 5.5 per cent rise in construction.
- In the third quarter of 2006, the service sector grew by 0.4 per cent, the construction sector rose by 2.4 per cent and the production sector by 0.2 per cent.
- The UK figures show that GDP rose by 2.6 per cent over the year to the end of 2006 Q3 and by 0.7 per cent over the latest quarter.
- Over the year to the end of 2006 Q3, the UK experienced a 3.6 per cent growth in services, a 0.9 per cent decline in production and the construction sector grew by 0.3.
- Over the latest quarter, the service sector in Scotland grew by 0.4 per cent. Within this sector the real estate & business services (+0.6%) sector was the main driver of the quarterly increase, followed by transport (+2.2%), and retail (+1.4%). Public admin, education & health (-0.2%) and other services (-0.5%) both declined over the latest quarter. All other service industries grew over the quarter.
- Output in the production sector grew by 0.2 per cent over the quarter. Within production, the electricity, gas & water supply sector grew by 4.7 per cent. This was partially offset by the mining & quarrying (-2.7%) and manufacturing (-0.4%) industries.
- Within manufacturing the main industry showing a decline over the quarter was electrical & instrument engineering (-7.2%). Other industries contributing to the decline but to a lesser extent were paper, printing & publishing (-3.1%) and drink (-0.8%). The main sectors showing growth over the quarter were transport equipment (+9.5%), chemicals & man-made fibres (+3.6%) and food & tobacco (+2.3%).
List of Tables
Table 1: Gross Value Added Chained Volume Measures at Basic Prices, by Category of Output
Table 2: Gross Value Added Chained Volume Measures at Basic Prices, by Category of Output
Table 3: Gross Value Added Chained Volume Measures at Basic Prices: Services Industries
Table 4: Gross Value Added Chained Volume Measures at Basic Prices: Detailed Service Industries
Table 5: Gross Value Added Chained Volume Measures at Basic Prices: Production Industries
Table 6: Gross Value Added Chained Volume Measures at Basic Prices: Detail Production Industries
Table 7: Gross Value Added Chained Volume Measures at Basic Prices, by Category of Output
Tables 8-13: Revisions to Data Published on October 25, 2006
1. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a measure of the value of goods and services produced by residents, before allowing for depreciation or capital consumption. Net receipts from interest, profits and dividends abroad are excluded. The estimates produced in this publication measure GDP at basic prices (also referred to as gross value added (GVA)).
2. In February 2004, on publication of results for 2003 Q3, the Scottish GDP estimates moved to annually weighted and chained estimates of volume measures - referred to as "annual chainlinking" - as recommended in the System of National Accounts 1993. This is consistent with the UK where this approach was introduced on 30 September 2003 in respect of the 2003 Q2 results. Annual chainlinking is achieved by producing a weighted average of over 260 separate indices (160 of which are in the production sector). The indices represent changes in the value added, at constant prices, in the production of goods and services in individual industries. These industries are compiled using the standard industrial classification SIC2003.
3. The main difference between chainlinking and the previous "fixed base" methodology is that the weights applied to each industry (reflecting their importance to the Scottish economy) are updated on an annual basis, instead of a 5-yearly basis. The major effect of chainlinking has been to reflect the changing importance of sectors.
4. The data used in the production of these quarterly GDP estimates are seasonally adjusted using the X-12-ARIMA technique where appropriate to remove regularly occurring peaks and troughs so that the underlying trends and other features of the data are easier to identify. Further information about the seasonal adjustment of the GDP data can be found in section A3 of Scottish Economic Statistics 2006 ( www.scotland.gov.uk/stats/ses)
5. Series are derived from indicators based on data from a wide range of sources. Examples include: deflated turnover, deflated production, the volume of a good or service sold or produced and, for some parts of the public sector, employee numbers.
6. The quarterly Scottish GDP estimates are published within 4 months (approximately 17 weeks) of the end of the quarter to which they relate.
7. The indices published within this Statistics Publication Notice are grouped according to the 2003 revised Standard Industrial Classification. The four broad groupings of industries are:
(a) agriculture, hunting, forestry & fishing;
(b) production - mining & quarrying industries; energy & water supply; and manufacturing, which includes: refined petroleum products & nuclear fuel; chemicals & man-made fibres; metal & metal products; engineering & allied industries; food, drink & tobacco industries; textiles, footwear, leather & clothing; other manufacturing;
(d) services - retail & wholesale; hotels & catering; transport, storage & communication; financial services; real estate & business services; public administration, education & health; other services.
8. Scottish GDP estimates will generally be less reliable than the estimates for the UK, primarily because the equivalent UK figures are produced by balancing 3 independent sets of estimates (Output (GVA), Income & Expenditure-based approaches). Furthermore, the survey data tend to be based on smaller numbers of units, making figures for Scotland more likely to be subject to fluctuation.
Cash Estimates of GVA
9. Estimates of the cash value of gross value added (GVA) at current prices for Scotland (and other regions of the UK) are produced by the Office for National Statistics. Estimates for 2005 were published on 15st December 2006. The ONS current price value estimates are methodologically different from the Scottish Executive volume (constant price) index and are based on different data sources.
10. The figures in this Statistics Publication Notice incorporate revisions to previously published estimates. Tables 8 - 13 identify the extent of revisions since the last publication in October 2006. Note that revisions to the base year (i.e. 2003) causes revisions to the index to appear elsewhere in the series but actual revisions to GDP growth rates may not exist. Revisions are shown to one decimal place for total GVA and GVA excluding oil & gas and to zero decimal places for all other sectors.
The series most affected by revisions this quarter are:
- Other services - due to historic revisions to deflators
- Transport - due to updated company data and historic revisions to deflators
- Communication - due to updated data for a single large company and historic revisions to deflators
- Transport equipment - improved company information for a single influential company
- Paper, publishing and printing - due to revised input data for recent quarters
A number of other series are affected by revisions to a lesser extent. These are mainly due to revisions to input data, revisions to deflators and adjustments to seasonal factors.
11. National Statistics are produced to high professional standards set out in the National Statistics Code of Practice. They undergo regular quality assurance reviews to ensure that they meet customer needs. They are produced free from any political interference.
12. Detailed results for all industries are available to download from the Scottish Executive website www.scotland.gov.uk/gdp.
Office of the Chief Economic Adviser
Office of the Permanent Secretary
St Andrew's House
Press Office: Angela-Claire Coutts 0141-244-2547
Statistician: Andrew Mortimer 0131-244-3771