Statistics Publication Notice
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT FOR SCOTLAND FOR THE 2 ND QUARTER OF 2003
29 th October 2003
A SCOTTISH EXECUTIVE NATIONAL STATISTICS PUBLICATION
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Gross Domestic Product in Scotland rose by 0.4 per cent in the second quarter of 2003 and by 0.5 per cent in the four quarters to 2003 Q2, compared with the previous four quarters, according to provisional estimates released today by the Scottish Executive.
The main findings of the latest figures are:
- GDP (seasonally adjusted) rose by 0.4 per cent in 2003 Q2 and by 0.5 per cent over the year to 2003 Q2.
- The UK figures (using the new chainlinked index which is not strictly comparable) show that GDP rose by 0.5 per cent in 2003 Q2 and by 1.8 per cent over the year to 2003 Q2.
- In the year to 2003 quarter 2, annual output in the Scottish service sector grew by 2.8 per cent, compared with a 6.5 per cent drop in the production sector and a 2.7 per cent rise in construction. The UK figures, based on the new chainlinked index, showed 2.4 per cent growth in services, a 1.4 per cent drop in production and 6.2 per cent growth in construction.
- Output in the manufacturing sector decreased by 1.7 per cent in 2003 Q2, and fell by 7.8 per cent over the year to 2003 Q2. The UK chainlinked index showed an increase of 0.5 per cent in 2003 Q2 and a fall of 1.4 per cent over the year to 2003 Q2 respectively.
NEXT PUBLISHED (Provisionally) 28 th January 2004
List of Tables
Table 1: Gross Domestic Product by category of output
Table 2: Gross Value Added at basic prices by category of output
Table 3: Gross Value Added at basic prices: service industries
Table 4: Gross Value Added at basic prices: detailed service industries
Table 5: Index of Production for Scotland - High Level Aggregation
Table 6: Index of Production for Scotland - Intermediate Level Aggregation
Table 7: Index of Production for Scotland - Low Level Aggregation
Table 8: Revisions to data published on 30 July 2003
Table 9: Revisions to data published on 30 July 2003
Table 10: Index of Production - Revisions to Data Published 30 July 2003 High Level Aggregation
Table 11: Index of Production - Revisions to Data Published 30 July 2003 Intermediate Level Aggregation
Table 12: Index of Production - Revisions to Data Published 30 July 2003 Low Level Aggregation
NOTES FOR NEWS EDITORS
1. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a measure of the value of goods and services produced by residents, before allowing for depreciation or capital consumption. Net receipts from interest, profits and dividends abroad are excluded. The estimates produced in this publication measure GDP at basic prices (also referred to as gross value added (GVA)).
2. These quarterly Scottish output-based estimates of GDP are based on much improved sources. In particular, whereas previous (annual) estimates of service sector activity relied heavily on UK indices adjusted by Scotland's relative employment share, the series are now derived directly from survey returns from businesses with bases in Scotland.
3. The GDP estimate is calculated by producing a weighted average of over 260 separate indices (163 of which are in the production sector). The indices represent changes in the value added, at constant prices, in the production of goods and services in individual industries. These industries are compiled using the standard industrial classification SIC2003. The weights used are proportional to the contribution of each industry or service to GDP in the base year (1995). Where value added figures are not available, proxy indicators are used. Over time, the movement of these proxy indicators may relate less closely to changes in value added due to efficiency and price changes.
4. Series are derived from indicators based on data from a wide range of sources. Examples include: deflated turnover, deflated production, the amount of a good or service sold or produced and, for some parts of the public sector, employee numbers.
5. The timetable for the release of the quarterly Scottish GDP has been accelerated by 1 week, and is now published within 4 months (approximately 17 weeks) of the end of the quarter to which it relates.
6. The indices published within this Statistics Publication Notice are grouped according to the 2003 revised Standard Industrial Classification. The four broad groupings of industries are
(a) agriculture, hunting, forestry and fishing
(b) production which comprises: mining and quarrying industries; energy and water supply; and manufacturing, which includes: refined petroleum products and nuclear fuel; chemical and man-made fibres; metal and metal products; engineering and allied industries; food, drink and tobacco industries; textiles, footwear, leather and clothing; other manufacturing.
(d) services, which includes: retail and wholesale; hotels and catering; transport, storage and communication; financial services; real estate and business services; public administration, education and health; other services.
7. From 30 th September 2003, the UK national accounts moved to annually weighted and chained estimates of volume measures - referred to as "annual chainlinking" - as recommended in the System of National Accounts 1993. The Scottish estimates included in this publication notice are still calculated using the "fixed base" methodology and as a result the Scottish and UK estimates are not strictly comparable due to the different methodologies employed. The inclusion of UK results in this publication has therefore been limited to headline indices in table 2, as comparisons between Scottish and UK figures are not recommended whilst the figures are based on different methodologies.
8. It is intended to adopt the annual chainlinking methodology in the estimation of quarterly Scottish GDP for the publication of 2003 Q3 estimates in January 2004. It has not been possible to implement the new methodology before this time as the availability of some of the Scottish data sources lags those for the UK.
9. Scottish GDP estimates will generally be less reliable than the estimates for the UK, primarily because the equivalent UK figures are produced by balancing 3 independent sets of
estimates (Output (GVA), Income & Expenditure-based approaches). Furthermore, the survey data tend to be based on smaller numbers of units, making figures for Scotland more likely to be subject to small random fluctuations.
10. Estimates of the cash value of gross value added (GVA) at current prices for Scotland (and other regions of the UK) are produced by the Office for National Statistics. Revised and updated estimates covering the period 1989 - 2001 were released by ONS in August 2003. The ONS current price value estimates are methodologically different from the Scottish Executive constant price index and are based on different data sources. The Scottish Executive estimates are unaffected by the revisions to the ONS estimates.
11. The figures in the News Release incorporate revisions due to new and revised data, and the updating of seasonal adjustment factors. Where appropriate, the data suppliers have verified these changes. Tables 8 to 12 show details of all revisions. The series most affected this quarter are (i) food, drink & tobacco, (ii) construction, (iii) transport & communication and (iv) other services.
12. This Statistics Publication Notice contains detailed service sector series (Table 4). The sectors covered are Retail, Transport, Communication and Banking. The Scottish Executive plans to continue to publish these data as experimental data for the next year or so, reviewing their quality and relevance with users.
13. National Statistics are produced to high professional standards set out in the National Statistics Code of Practice. They undergo regular quality assurance reviews to ensure that they meet customer needs. They are produced free from any political interference.
Mercury/ Profile users may obtain a copy of the tables by calling the number below.
Office of the Chief Economic Adviser
Office of the Permanent Secretary
St Andrews House
Edinburgh EH1 3DG