Statistics Publication Notice
30 th July 2003
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT FOR SCOTLAND FOR THE 1 ST QUARTER OF 2003
A Scottish Executive National Statistics Publication
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Gross Domestic Product in Scotland fell by 0.3 per cent in the first quarter of 2003. There was no change in the level of GDP in the four quarters to 2003 Q1, compared with the previous four quarters, according to provisional estimates released today by the Scottish Executive.
The main findings of the latest figures are:
- GDP (seasonally adjusted) fell by 0.3 per cent in 2003 Q1. Over the same period, GDP remained level for the UK as a whole.
- There was no change in the level of GDP in Scotland over the year to 2003 Q1, while the annual growth over the same period for the UK as a whole was 1.7 per cent.
- In the year to 2003 quarter 1, annual output in the Scottish service sector grew by 3.3 per cent, compared with an 8.3 per cent drop in the production sector and a 1.8 per cent drop in construction. The equivalent figures for the UK were 2.6 per cent growth in services, a 2.3 per cent drop in production and 6.4 per cent growth in construction.
- Output in the manufacturing sector decreased by 1.4 per cent in 2003 Q1, and by 10.0 per cent over the year to 2003 Q1. The equivalent figures for the UK showed an increase of 0.1 per cent in 2003 Q1 and a fall of 2.6 per cent over the year to 2003 Q1 respectively.
NEXT PUBLISHED (Provisionally): 29 October 2003
Table 1: Gross Domestic Product by category of output
Gross Domestic Product
Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing
Q2 02 on Q1 02
Q3 02 on Q2 02
Q4 02 on Q3 02
Q1 03 on Q4 02
% change latest 4 qtrs. on previous 4 qtrs.
Table 2: Gross Value Added at basic prices by category of output
Table 3: Gross Value Added at basic prices: service industries
Table 4: Gross Value Added at basic prices: detailed service industries
Table 5: Index of Production for Scotland - High Level Aggregation
Table 6: Index of Production for Scotland - Intermediate Level Aggregation
Table 7: Index of Production for Scotland - Low Level Aggregation
Table 8: Revisions to data published on 7 May 2003
Table 9: Revisions to data published on 7 May 2003
Table 10: Index of Production - Revisions to Data Published 7 May 2003
Table 11: Index of Production - Revisions to Data Published 7 May 2003
Table 12: Index of Production - Revisions to Data Published 7 May 2003
NOTES FOR NEWS EDITORS
1. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a measure of the value of goods and services produced by residents, before allowing for depreciation or capital consumption. Net receipts from interest, profits and dividends abroad are excluded.
2. These quarterly Scottish output-based estimates of GDP are based on much improved sources. In particular, whereas previous (annual) estimates of service sector activity relied heavily on UK indices adjusted by Scotland's relative employment share, the series are now derived directly from survey returns from businesses with bases in Scotland.
3. The GDP estimate is calculated by producing a weighted average of over 260 separate indices (163 of which are in the production sector). The indices represent changes in the value added, at constant prices, in the production of goods and services in individual industries. These industries are compiled using the standard industrial classification SIC92. The weights used are proportional to the contribution of each industry or service to GDP in the base year (1995). Within production, weights are derived, for the most part, from the value added to output as measured by the Annual Census of Production in the base year. Where value added figures are not available, proxy indicators are used. Over time, the movement of these proxy indicators may relate less closely to changes in value added due to efficiency and price changes.
4. Series are derived from indicators based on data from a wide range of sources. Examples include: deflated turnover, deflated production, the amount of a good or service sold or produced and, for some parts of the public sector, employee numbers.
5. The timetable for the release of the quarterly Scottish GDP has been accelerated by 1 week, and is now published within 4 months (approximately 17 weeks) of the end of the quarter to which it relates.
6. The indices published within this Statistics Publication Notice are grouped according to the 1992 revised Standard Industrial Classification. The four broad groupings of industries are
(a) agriculture, hunting, forestry and fishing
(b) production which comprises: mining and quarrying industries; energy and water supply; and manufacturing, which includes: refined petroleum products and nuclear fuel; chemical and man-made fibres; metal and metal products; engineering and allied industries; food, drink and tobacco industries; textiles, footwear, leather and clothing; other manufacturing.
(d) services, which includes: retail and wholesale; hotels and catering; transport, storage and communication; financial services; real estate and business services; public administration, education and health; other services.
7. The methodology employed to calculate the Scottish estimates of GDP growth is consistent with that used by other National Statistics publications in the calculation of Gross Value Added (GVA) for the UK and, as such, is ESA95 (European System of Accounts 1995) compliant. An article "Quarterly estimation of Gross Domestic Product" appeared in Scottish Economic Statistics, published by the Scottish Executive in February 2000.
8. Scottish GDP estimates will generally be less reliable than the estimates for the UK, primarily because the equivalent UK figures are produced by balancing 3 independent sets of
estimates (Output (GVA), Income & Expenditure-based approaches). Furthermore, the survey data tend to be based on smaller numbers of units, making figures for Scotland more likely to be subject to small random fluctuations.
9. The revised gross value added (GVA) statistics for Scotland, which were released on Thursday 21st November 2002 by the Office for National Statistics have been withdrawn and will be re-released in August 2003. The revised 1989-1999 figures for NUTS1 areas have been anounced for publication by ONS on 14 August, followed by the 2000-2001 estimates on 20 August. The ONS estimates are methodologically different from the Scottish Executive estimates and are based on different data sources. The Scottish Executive estimates are unaffected by the revisions to the ONS estimates.
10. The figures in the News Release incorporate revisions due to new and revised data, and the updating of seasonal adjustment factors. Where appropriate, the data suppliers have verified these changes. Tables 8 to 12 show details of all revisions. The series most affected this quarter are the 2002 Q4 estimates for Chemicals, Fisheries and for Financial Services.
11. This News Release contains detailed service sector series (Table 4). The sectors covered are Retail, Transport, Communication and Banking. The Scottish Executive plans to continue to publish these data as experimental data for the next year or so, reviewing their quality and relevance with users.
12. National Statistics are produced to high professional standards set out in the National Statistics Code of Practice. They undergo regular quality assurance reviews to ensure that they meet customer needs. They are produced free from any political interference.
Mercury/ Profile users may obtain a copy of the tables by calling the number below.
Office of the Chief Economic Adviser
Finance and Central Services Department
St Andrews House
Edinburgh WH1 3DG
Press Office: Pauline Davidson 0141-244-2530
Statistician: Jill Alexander 0131-244-2825