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Gross Domestic Product for Scotland for the 3rd Quarter of 2002

DescriptionOverview of the Economic Situatiion of Scotland for the third quarter of 2002
ISBN
Official Print Publication Date
Website Publication DateFebruary 05, 2003

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GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT FOR SCOTLAND FOR THE 3rd QUARTER OF 2002

NEXT PUBLISHED (Provisionally): 7 May 2003

A Scottish Executive National Statistics publication

News Release

This document is also available in pdf format (84k)

Gross Domestic Product in Scotland rose by 0.6 per cent in the third quarter of 2002 and rose by 0.1 per cent in the 4 quarters to 2002 Q3, according to provisional estimates released today by the Scottish Executive.

The main findings of the latest figures are:

  • GDP (seasonally adjusted) rose by 0.6 per cent in 2002 Q3. For the UK as a whole GDP rose by 0.8 per cent.
  • In the 4 quarters to 2002 Q3, the increase was 0.1 per cent, compared with the previous 4 quarters (to 2001 Q3). The equivalent UK figure was 1.3 per cent.
  • In the 4 quarters to 2002 Q3, output in the Scottish service sector grew by 5.0 per cent, compared with a 10.8 per cent drop in the production sector and a 4.6 per cent drop in construction. The equivalent figures for the UK were +2.5 per cent (services), - 4.4 per cent (production) and +7.1 per cent (construction).
  • In the 4 quarters to 2002 Q3, output in the Manufacturing sector decreased by - 12.7 per cent, compared with the previous 4 quarters. In 2002 Q3, output decreased by 0.8 per cent, compared with the preceding quarter. The equivalent figures for the UK were -5.2 per cent and +1.0 per cent, respectively.

Table 1: Gross Domestic Product by category of output

Seasonally adjusted
1995=100

Gross Domestic Product

Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing

Production

Construction

Services

1997

105.4

95.7

108.8

101.1

104.8

1998

107.3

97.5

111.5

98.3

106.9

1999

109.8

99.0

115.3

101.6

108.7

2000

111.9

99.5

115.7

109.3

111.1

2001

113.2

100.8

106.3

106.4

117.4

1998

Q1

106.5

96.3

111.7

94.9

106.0

Q2

107.3

96.8

110.7

97.1

107.3

Q3

107.4

100.1

110.7

101.6

106.9

Q4

108.1

97.0

113.1

99.4

107.4

1999

Q1

107.9

96.8

113.8

92.6

107.4

Q2

109.2

100.6

114.3

101.4

108.2

Q3

110.8

99.9

116.4

104.8

109.6

Q4

111.2

98.7

116.7

107.7

109.7

2000

Q1

111.6

98.1

116.8

114.8

109.7

Q2

112.1

99.2

117.2

105.3

111.2

Q3

111.6

100.5

115.8

107.5

110.7

Q4

112.1

100.1

113.0

109.5

112.6

2001

Q1

112.3

99.9

110.4

110.4

113.9

Q2

113.3

100.4

109.5

108.4

116.1

Q3

113.7

101.5

105.1

104.7

119.0

Q4

113.4

101.5

100.5

102.0

120.6

2002

Q1

112.5

100.0

97.3

101.5

120.7

Q2

112.6

97.7

96.9

103.5

121.1

Q3

113.3

99.3

96.0

106.1

122.1

Percentage change:

Q4 01 on Q3 01

-0.3

-0.1

-4.3

-2.5

+1.4

Q1 02 on Q4 01

-0.8

-1.4

-3.2

-0.5

+0.1

Q2 02 on Q1 02

+0.2

-2.3

-0.4

+2.0

+0.3

Q3 02 on Q2 02

+0.6

+1.6

-0.9

+2.5

+0.9

% change latest 4 qtrs.
on previous 4 qtrs

+0.1

-0.9

-10.9

-4.6

+5.0

Tables

Table 2: Gross Value Added at basic prices by category of output
Table 3: Gross Value Added at basic prices: service industries
Table 4: Gross Value Added at basic prices: detailed service industries
Table 5: Index of Production for Scotland - High Level Aggregation
Table 6: Index of Production for Scotland - Intermediate Level Aggregation
Table 7: Index of Production for Scotland - Low Level Aggregation
Table 8: Revisions to data published on 6 November 2002
Table 9: Revisions to data published on 6 November 2002
Table 10: Index of Production - Revisions to Data Published 6 November 2002 High Level Aggregation
Table 11: Index of Production - Revisions to Data Published 6 November 2002 Intermediate Level Aggregation
Table 12: Index of Production - Revisions to Data Published 6 November 2002 Low Level Aggregation

NOTES FOR NEWS EDITORS

1. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a measure of the value of goods and services produced by residents, before allowing for depreciation or capital consumption. Net receipts from interest, profits and dividends abroad are excluded.

2. These quarterly Scottish output-based estimates of GDP are based on much improved sources. In particular, whereas previous (annual) estimates of service sector activity relied heavily on UK indices adjusted by Scotland's relative employment share, the series are now derived directly from survey returns from businesses with bases in Scotland.

3. The GDP estimate is calculated by producing a weighted average of over 260 separate indices (163 of which are in the production sector). The indices represent changes in the value added, at constant prices, in the production of goods and services in individual industries. These industries are compiled using the standard industrial classification SIC92. The weights used are proportional to the contribution of each industry or service to GDP in the base year (1995). Within production, weights are derived, for the most part, from the value added to output as measured by the Annual Census of Production in the base year. Where value added figures are not available, proxy indicators are used. Over time, the movement of these proxy indicators may relate less closely to changes in value added due to efficiency and price changes.

4. Series are derived from indicators based on data from a wide range of sources. Examples include: deflated turnover, deflated production, the amount of a good or service sold or produced and, for some parts of the public sector, employee numbers.

5. The indices published within this News Release are grouped according to the 1992 revised Standard Industrial Classification. The four broad groupings of industries are

(a) agriculture, hunting, forestry and fishing

(b) production which comprises: mining and quarrying industries; energy and water supply; and manufacturing, which includes: refined petroleum products and nuclear fuel; chemical and man-made fibres; metal and metal products; engineering and allied industries; food, drink and tobacco industries; textiles, footwear, leather and clothing; other manufacturing.

(c) construction

(d) services, which includes: retail and wholesale; hotels and catering; transport, storage and communication; financial services; real estate and business services; public administration, education and health; other services.

6. The methodology employed to calculate the Scottish estimates of GDP growth is consistent with that used by other National Statistics publications in the calculation of Gross Value Added (GVA) for the UK and, as such, is ESA95 (European System of Accounts 1995) compliant. An article "Quarterly estimation of Gross Domestic Product" appeared in Scottish Economic Statistics, published by the Scottish Executive in February 2000.

7. Scottish GDP estimates will generally be less reliable than the estimates for the UK, primarily because the equivalent UK figures are produced by balancing 3 independent sets of estimates (Output (GVA), Income & Expenditure-based approaches). Furthermore, the survey data tend to be based on smaller numbers of units, making figures for Scotland more likely to be subject to small random fluctuations.

8. The revised gross value added (GVA) statistics for Scotland, which were released on Thursday 21st November 2002 by the Office for National Statistics have been withdrawn and deferred until the data problems are resolved. The ONS estimates are methodologically different from the Scottish Executive estimates and are based on different data sources. The two datasets are intended to be used for different purposes. The Scottish Executive estimates are unaffected by difficulties with the ONS estimates.

9. The figures in the News Release incorporate revisions due to new and revised data, and the updating of seasonal adjustment factors. The data suppliers have verified these changes. These are one off revisions. Tables 8 to 12 show details of all revisions

10. This News Release contains detailed service sector series (Table 4). The sectors covered are Retail, Transport, Communication and Banking. The Scottish Executive plans to continue to publish these data as experimental data for the next year or so, reviewing their quality and relevance with users.

11. National Statistics are produced to high professional standards set out in the National Statistics Code of Practice. They undergo regular quality assurance reviews to ensure that they meet customer needs. They are produced free from any political interference.

Mercury/ Profile users may obtain a copy of the tables by calling the number below.

Issued by

Office of the Chief Economic Advisor
Finance and Central Services Department
St Andrews House
Regent Road
Edinburgh WH1 3DG

Telephone

Press Office:

Robert Shorthouse

0141-242-5666

Statistician:

Hugh McAloon

0131-244-3771