GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT FOR SCOTLAND FOR THE 1st QUARTER OF 2002
A Scottish Executive National Statistics publication
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Gross Domestic Product in Scotland fell by 0.7 per cent in the first quarter of 2002 and rose by 0.7 per cent in the 4 quarters to 2002 Q1, according to provisional estimates released today by the Scottish Executive.
The main findings of the latest figures are:
- GDP (seasonally adjusted) fell by 0.7 per cent in 2002 Q1. For the UK as a whole GDP rose by 0.2 per cent.
- In the 4 quarters to 2002 Q1, the increase was 0.7 per cent, compared with the previous 4 quarters (to 2001 Q1). The equivalent UK figure was 1.6 per cent.
- In the 4 quarters to 2002 Q1, output in the Scottish service sector grew by 5.7 per cent, compared with a 9.6 per cent drop in the production sector and a 4.1 per cent drop in construction. The equivalent figures for the UK were +3.1 per cent (services), -3.7 per cent (production) and +5.6 per cent (construction).
In the 4 quarters to 2002 Q1, output in the Manufacturing sector decreased by 10.6 per cent, compared with the previous 4 quarters. In 2002 Q1, output decreased by 4.3 per cent, compared with the preceding quarter. The equivalent figures for the UK were -4.2 per cent and -1.3 per cent, respectively
NEXT PUBLISHED: 6 November 2002 (Provisional)
Table 1: Gross Domestic Product by category of output
Gross Domestic Product
Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing
Percentage change: Q1 02 on Q4 01
% change latest 4 qtrs on previous 4 qtrs.
NOTES FOR NEWS EDITORS
1. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a measure of the value of goods and services produced by residents, before allowing for depreciation or capital consumption. Net receipts from interest, profits and dividends abroad are excluded.
2. These quarterly Scottish output-based estimates of GDP are based on much improved sources. In particular, whereas previous (annual) estimates of service sector activity relied heavily on UK indices adjusted by Scotland's relative employment share, the series are now derived directly from survey returns from businesses with bases in Scotland. The improved data now permits the derivation of 7 disaggregated indices of activity within the service sector ( Table 4).
3. The GDP estimate is calculated by producing a weighted average of over 350 separate indices (164 of which are in the production sector). The indices represent changes in the value added, at constant prices, in the production of goods and services in individual industries. These industries are compiled using the standard industrial classification SIC92. The weights used are proportional to the contribution of each industry or service to GDP in the base year (1995). Within production, weights are derived, for the most part, from the value added to output as measured by the Annual Census of Production in the base year. Where value added figures are not available, proxy indicators are used. Over time, the movement of these proxy indicators may relate less closely to changes in value added due to efficiency and price changes.
4. Series are derived from indicators based on data from a wide range of sources. Examples include: deflated turnover, deflated production, the amount of a good or service sold or produced and, for some parts of the public sector, employee numbers.
5. The indices published within this News Release are grouped according to the 1992 revised Standard Industrial Classification. The four broad groupings of industries are
(a) agriculture, hunting, forestry and fishing
(b) production which comprises: mining and quarrying industries; energy and water supply; and manufacturing, which includes: refined petroleum products and nuclear fuel; chemical and man-made fibres; metal and metal products; engineering and allied industries; food, drink and tobacco industries; textiles, footwear, leather and clothing; other manufacturing.
(d) services, which includes: retail and wholesale; hotels and catering; transport, storage and communication; financial services; real estate and business services; public administration, education and health; other services.
6. The methodology employed to calculate the Scottish estimates of GDP growth is consistent with that used by other National Statistics publications in the calculation of Gross Value Added (GVA) for the UK and, as such, is ESA95 (European System of Accounts 1995) compliant. An article "Quarterly estimation of Gross Domestic Product" appeared in Scottish Economic Statistics, published by the Scottish Executive in February 2000.
7. Scottish GDP estimates will generally be less reliable than the estimates for the UK, primarily because the equivalent UK figures are produced by balancing 3 independent sets of estimates (Output (GVA), Income & Expenditure-based approaches). Furthermore, the survey data tend to be based on smaller numbers of units, making figures for Scotland more likely to be subject to small random fluctuations.
8. Although it is not possible to isolate and quantify the effect of economic uncertainties following the events of September 11th, it is likely that there has been a significant effect on the level on Scottish GDP.
9. The figures in the News Release incorporate revisions due to new and revised data, and the updating of seasonal adjustment factors. The data suppliers have verified these changes. These are one off revisions. Tables 7 to 11 show details of all revisions
10. National Statistics are produced to high professional standards set out in the National Statistics Code of Practice. They undergo regular quality assurance reviews to ensure that they meet customer needs. They are produced free from any political interference.
Mercury/ Profile users may obtain a copy of the tables by calling the number below.
Office of the Chief Economic Adviser
Scottish Executive Finance & Central
St Andrew's House
Edinburgh EH1 2DG
List of Tables
Table 1: Gross Domestic Product by category of output
Table 2: Gross Value Added at basic prices by category of output
Table 3: Gross Value Added at basic prices: service industries
Table 4: Index of Production for Scotland - High Level Aggregation
Table 5: Index of Production for Scotland - Intermediate Level Aggregation
Table 6: Index of Production for Scotland - Low Level Aggregation
Table 7: Revisions to data published on 1 May 2002
Table 8: Revisions to data published on 1 May 2002
Table 9: Index of Production - Revisions to Data Published 1 May 2002
Table 10: Index of Production - Revisions to Data Published 1 May 2002 - Intermediate Level Aggregation
Table 11: Index of Production - Revisions to Data Published 1 May 2002 - Low Level Aggregation