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Technical Note: Participation

Improve Economic Participation

DESCRIPTION:

This purpose target consists of two parts:

The first part is about maintaining Scotland's position on labour market participation as the top performing country in the UK and is measured through a comparison of the employment rates in the 4 constituent countries of the UK.

The second part of the target is for Scotland to narrow the gap between employment rates in Scotland and the top 5 OECD countries (which are currently Iceland, Switzerland, Norway, Sweden and New Zealand).

SOURCE:

Participation vs UK

Progress against the first part of the target (To maintain our position on labour market participation as the top performing country in the UK) is measured using the Labour Force Survey (LFS). LFS data are collected by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and are available from 1992.

For comparisons within the UK, this indicator is calculated as the proportion of people aged 16 to 64 in employment.

Headline data from the Labour Force Survey are published each month on a rolling 3 month basis by the Office for National Statistics. This data is seasonally adjusted.

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/taxonomy/index.html?nscl=Labour%20Market#tab-overview

The Labour Market Statistics First Release published by ONS contains a regional labour market summary, including data to measure employment rates by country - Table A07.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/previousReleases

Data for comparing Scotland's performance against the OECD countries are taken from the OECD web site based on the European Labour Force Survey data used in the Employment Outlook publication. The Scottish and UK data are sourced from the Annual Population Survey (APS) and data for the other OECD members are taken from the OECD website.

For international comparisons, this indicator is calculated as the proportion of people aged 15 to 64 in employment.

For international comparisons the source used for the Scottish and UK data is the Annual Population Survey. Data from the Annual Population Survey (APS) are published on a quarterly basis by the Office for National Statistics. A publication of headline figures from the APS is published in spring/summer each year by the Scottish Government covering the period January to December of the previous year. This data is not seasonally adjusted.

http://www.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Labour-Market/Publications

Reweighted data for the Annual Population Survey (APS) was published in June 2017.

Data are also published on the National Online Manpower Information System

(NOMIS) website (www.nomisweb.co.uk)

Data for the other OECD members are published on the OECD website,

http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=LFS_SEXAGE_I_R

DEFINITIONS:

Participation is defined as covering those in employment. For comparisons within the UK, this will be measured using the headline employment rate, which measures the proportion of the population aged 16 to 64 (for both men and women) in employment.

Employment is defined as people who are employees, self employed, on government training programmes or unpaid family workers.

The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) is an international organisation helping governments tackle the economic, social and governance challenges of a globalised economy. Currently there are over 30 countries who are members of the OECD (as shown in Chart 3) and this may increase in future years. For comparisons with the OECD the employment rate is defined as the proportion of those aged 15-64 in employment.

BASELINE AND PAST TRENDS:

To maintain our position on labour market participation as the top performing country in the UK :

Baseline: The baseline for this element of the target will be Scotland's position compared to the other countries of the UK in the corresponding quarter of 2007. In 2007, Scotland had the highest working-age employment rate of the UK countries.

 

Gap with the best performing one of the other three countries
(percentage point)

Jan-Mar 2007

2.0

Apr-Jun 2007

2.2

Jul-Sep 2007

1.3

Oct-Dec 2007

1.1

Jan-Mar 2008

1.1

Apr-Jun 2008

1.3

Jul-Sep 2008

1.2

Oct-Dec 2008

0.9

Jan-Mar 2009

1.2

Apr-Jun 2009

0.9

Jul-Sep 2009

0.9

Oct-Dec 2009

0.7

Jan-Mar 2010

-0.7

Apr-Jun 2010

-0.7

Jul-Sep 2010

-0.3

Oct-Dec 2010

0.6

Jan-Mar 2011

0.3

Apr-Jun 2011

1.0

Jul-Sep 2011

0.9

Oct-Dec 2011

0.5

 

Jan-Mar 2012

0.5

 

Apr-Jun 2012

0.2

 

Jul-Sep 2012

-0.9

 

Oct-Dec 2012

-0.9

 

Jan-Mar 2013

0.3

 

Apr-Jun 2013

0.6

 

Jul-Sep 2013

1.0

 

Oct-Dec 2013

0.4

 

Jan-Mar 2014

0.6

 

Apr-Jun 2014

0.3

 

Jul-Sep 2014

0.6

 

Oct-Dec 2014

0.8

 

Jan-Mar 2015

0.7

 

Apr-Jun 2015

0.5

 

Jul-Sep 2015

0.1

 

Oct-Dec 2015

0.3

 

Jan-Mar 2016

-1.4

 

Apr-Jun 2016

-0.7

 

Jul-Sep 2016

 

-1.2

 

Oct-Dec 2016

 

-1.2

 

Jan-Mar 2017

 

-1.1

 

Apr-Jun 2017

-0.3

 

Jul-Sep 2017

-0.2

Oct-Dec 2017 -1.3

Close the gap with the top 5 OECD economies by 2017:

Baseline: The baseline for this element of the target will be Scotland's employment rate relative to our competitors in the OECD in 2006.

In 2006, Scotland was ranked 9th out of 31 countries. The top 5 countries in 2006 were Iceland, Switzerland, Denmark, Norway, and New Zealand. Scotland's employment rate (as the proportion of the population aged 15-64) in 2006 was 72.3%. New Zealand's rate was 74.8% - this results in a 2.4 percentage point gap.

Gap between the employment rates in Scotland and the OECD country with the fifth highest employment rate:

Year

Gap (Percentage Points)

2006

2.4

2007

2.6

2008

3.7

2009

4.8

2010

3.6

2011

4.3

2012

4.5

2013

4.7

2014

2.8

2015

2.4

2016

3.0

 

CRITERIA FOR RECENT CHANGE ARROW:

To maintain our position on labour market participation as the top performing country in the UK

This evaluation is based on: any difference in the gap within +/- 1 percentage points of the equivalent quarter in the previous year suggests that the position is more likely to be maintaining than showing any change. A movement of 1 percentage point or more in Scotland's favour suggests that the position is improving, whereas a movement of 1 percentage point or more to Scotland's detriment suggests that the position is worsening.

To close the gap with the top 5 OECD economies by 2017

This evaluation is based on: any difference in the gap within +/- 0.5 percentage points of the previous year suggests that the position is more likely to be maintaining than showing any change. A movement of 0.5 percentage point or more in Scotland's favour suggests that the position is improving, whereas a movement of 0.5 percentage point or more in favour of the fifth highest OECD country suggests that the position is worsening.

For information on general methodological approach, please click here.

FUTURE ISSUES OR REVIEWS:

Prior to August 2010, the first part of the Participation Target (To maintain our position on labour market participation as the top performing country in the UK) was based on the traditional working-age population, defined as males aged 16-64 and females aged 16-59.

In August 2010, the first part of the Participation Target was revised to be based on the definition for the new headline employment rate which covers the population aged 16 to 64 for both men and women. This new definition has been applied to the back series to ensure consistent comparisons.

This change was implemented as the female state pension age is now gradually increasing from 60 to 65, over a ten year period from April 2010 to 2020. As a result, the headline employment rates as published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) are now based on the population aged 16 to 64 for both men and women.

The change to the definition was made in August 2010, as the April to June 2010 LFS dataset was released at this time, and the female state pension age started to change from April 2010.

ASSOCIATED TARGET:

To maintain our position on labour market participation as the top performing country in the UK

To close the gap with the top five OECD economies by 2017